Great Game

Podcast: Himalayan fault lines in BRICS

In Episode 189 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg notes that despite all the tankie pseudo-left enthusiasm for the BRICS summit in South Africa, the notion of a unified bloc against Western hegemony is illusory. The Johannesburg confab was immediately followed by a diplomatic spat between China and India, sparked by Beijing's release of an official map of the territory of the People's Republic—showing two Himalayan enclaves claimed by India as Chinese territory: Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh, which have both been the scene of border skirmishes in recent years. The map also shows an island in the Amur River, by mutual agreement half controlled by Russia, as entirely Chinese. Moscow, depending on China's acquiescence in the Ukraine war, has lodged no protest over this. But the border disputes between nuclear-armed India and China have the potential to escalate to the unthinkable. Listen on SoundCloud or via Patreon.

Turkey intransigent on Syria occupation zone

In his drive for "normalization" of his regime, Syran dictator Bashar Assad has been welcoming meetings with regional leaders in recent months. However, in comments to a reporter last week, he set a withdrawal of Turkish troops from northern Syria as a precondition for any meeting with Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. "Erdogan's objective in meeting me is to legitimize the Turkish occupation in Syria," Assad said. Turkey's Defense Minister Yasar Guler responded days later by saying: "It is unthinkable for us to withdraw without ensuring the security of our borders and our people."

Ethiopia: Eritrean forces still in Tigray?

Eritrea lodged a diplomatic protest with the United Kingdom Aug. 12 after the British ambassador to Ethiopia publicly called "for Eritrean forces to withdraw completely back to their own borders." Eritrean forces intervened in support of Ethiopia's federal government during the two-year war in northern Tigray region, but supposedly withdrew after last year's ceasefire. Asmara's diplomatic statement decried "unwarranted remarks" by the ambassador, Darren Welch, without explicitly stating that it no longer has forces in Tigray. One day earlier, the UK Minister of State for Development & Africa Andrew Mitchel issued a finding that "Eritrean forces remaining in Tigray present an obstacle to the overall objective of peace and stability within the region." The controversy comes 10 months after a formal ceasefire in Tigray that has led to a reduction of violence in the region, although rights abuses and a humanitarian crisis persist, exacerbated by a devastating drought. (AFP, Jurist)

Podcast: flashpoint Niger

In Episode 186 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg examines the coup d'etat in Niger, which now threatens to plunge West Africa into regional war—with potential for escalation involving the Great Powers. Lines are drawn, with the Western-backed ECOWAS demanding the junta cede power, and Russian-backed Mali and Burkina Faso backing the junta up.  Pro-junta demonstrators in Niger's capital, Niamey, wave the Russian flag—probably to express displeasure at US and French neo-colonialism. The Wagner Group, which already has troops in Mali and Burkina Faso, has expressed its support for the junta, and offered fighters to help stabilize the regime. Elements of the tankie pseudo-left in the West are similarly rallying around the junta. Amid this, leaders of the Tuareg resistance in Niger have returned to arms to resist the new regime, and the country's mine workers union is also demanding a return to democratic rule. Listen on SoundCloud or via Patreon.

Russia's grain-for-influence gambit

Russian President Vladimir Putin has pledged free grain to six African nations. The announcement comes one week after Russia withdrew from the Black Sea grain deal, triggering a spike in global prices. Opening the Africa-Russian summit in St. Petersburg on July 27, Putin promised to send 25,000 to 50,000 tons of free grain to Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, Central African Republic, and Eritrea. The countries are among Moscow's closest allies on the continent, but they are not all the most food-import dependent. UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that a "handful of donations" would not correct the market impact of Russia's termination of the year-long deal, which had cut cereal prices by more than one third. The African Union echoed Guterres' criticism.

Military coup d'etat consolidated in Niger

Niger's national broadcaster identified Gen. Abdourahamane Tiani as president of the country's new military government on July 28 following a coup that deposed elected President Mohamed Bazoum.

Abraham Accords' betrayal of Sahrawi consolidated

Israel announced July 17 that it has formally recognized Moroccan sovereignty over the disputed territory of Western Sahara. The US in 2021 became the first nation to recognize Morocco's claim to the territory—an open quid pro quo for Moroccan recognition of Israel as a part of the so-called Abraham Accords. Israeli recognition of Morocco's claim was promised at that time. However, much of the territory is controlled by the Polisario Front, independence movement of the Sahrawi Arab people. Some 45 countries around the world recognize Polisario's declared Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR); the US and Israel are alone in recognizing Rabat's rule over the territory.

Syria: grim reality behind Assad's new aid offer

The Security Council has failed to renew the resolution allowing the UN to deliver aid across the border from Turkey to northwest Syria, throwing into question the future of a relief effort that is crucial for millions of people. The resolution, which has allowed the UN cross into rebel-held territories without the permission of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, expired on July 10. The following day, Russia vetoed a new resolution that would have allowed access through one border crossing into the region, Bab al-Hawa, for nine months.

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