A last-minute "permanent ceasefire" may mean that northeast Syria is back from the brink of Arab-Kurdish ethnic war. But ceasefires have repeatedly broken down since fighting resumed earlier this year, with Damascus demanding disbandment of the Rojava autonomous zone, and the integration of its institutions—including its military wing, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)—into the central government. While the new pact sets a more "gradual" pace for this integration, the Kurdish aspiration to regional autonomy and the central government's insistence on centralization may prove a long-term obstacle to peace. In Episode 315 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg weighs the odds for avoiding a conflict that holds the potential for escalation to genocide, with the connivance of the Great Powers that so recently backed the SDF to fight ISIS.

The Kurdish-held border town of Kobani in northern Syria is under siege again, as it was by ISIS in 2014—but this time by forces of the Syrian central government, which has cut off water and power to the town in the dead of winter, with snow on the ground. Since the start of the year, the Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria have lost almost all of the territory they controlled to a new offensive by the central government. Kobani with Hasakah and Qamishli are the last besieged strongholds of the reduced Rojava autonomous zone. And both the US and Russia, which have backed the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) against ISIS, now appear to be cutting them loose—effectively green-lighting the government offensive against them. The US special envoy for Syria, Tom Barrack, has already warned that US support for the SDF is coming to an end. And in the midst of the offensive, Russia has withdrawn its forces from Qamishli, its principal military outpost in Rojava.

The Syrian interim government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) reached an agreement Jan. 18 to immediately halt fighting and integrate SDF-held areas into state institutions. The deal follows days of renewed clashes, in which government forces routed SDF strongholds in the city of Aleppo and then pushed east, taking several towns that had been under the control of the Kurdish-led autonomous administration. Just hours before the agreement was reached, autonomous authorities in the Kurdish region, known as Rojava, had announced a "general mobilization" in support of the SDF, citing an "existential war" launched by Damascus against their territory.

European troops have landed in Greenland amid tense talks between the country's autonomous government, officials from Denmark, and the United States. President Trump has continued to insist the two-million-square-kilometer Arctic island should belong to the United States—despite pre-existing security agreements and a (previously) strong relationship with Denmark that grants the US significant military access to the territory. Beyond Trump's ego, there are reasons related to climate change that explain why Greenland is becoming of political interest. The territory's strategic location has become even more so in recent years as the Greenland ice sheet and surrounding sea ice have retreated significantly: The ice sheet lost 105 billion tonnes in 2024-25, according to scientists. This has disastrous implications—ice helps cool the planet, and its melt will lead to rising seas. But it also allows ships and submarines more freedom of movement, making military planners nervous.

Civilians fled Kurdish-majority neighborhoods of Aleppo on Jan. 7 after the Syrian army declared them "closed military zones" and began shelling the areas. Some 300 homes are reported destroyed in the neighborhoods of Sheikh Maqsud and Ashrafiyeh, which have long been under the control of the Kurdish Asayish militia force. The Asayish and the interim government's army blamed each other for initiating the clashes. Thousands have fled through "humanitarian crossings" the army has established for residents to evacuate.

Israel has become the first country on Earth to recognize the de facto independent Republic of Somaliland, in exchange for a commitment from Somaliland to join the Abraham Accords and recognize Israel. However, not three years ago, Israel joined the US as the only two countries on Earth to recognize Morocco's claim to sovereignty over the disputed territory of Western Sahara—a betrayal of the occupied Sahrawi Arab people who seek an independent state. And of course both these deals constitute a betrayal of the Palestinians. Somaliland and the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic should be natural allies, and instead they are being pitted against each other in the Great Power game. Yet another example of how a global divide-and-rule racket is the essence of the state system. In Episode 311 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg breaks it down.

A group of 21 Arab, African and Islamic nations on Dec. 27 issued a joint statement formally rejecting Israel's recognition of Somaliland as an independent state. The statement asserted that recognizing Somaliland as a nation independent of Somalia constitutes a grave violation of international law, emphasizing the "serious repercussions of such [an] unprecedented measure on peace and security in the Horn of Africa, the Red Sea, and its serious effects on international peace and security as a whole."

At least 22 ethnic Teke civilians were killed in late November when militia fighters attacked a village in the western Democratic Republic of Congo, the latest episode of intercommunal violence that has plagued the region since 2022.