Great Game

Regional powers vie in Somalia

Tensions are ratcheting up in the Horn of Africa over the deployment of Egyptian troops to Somalia. Ethiopia, Somalia's neighbor, isn’t happy. It has soldiers in Somalia acting as a buffer against al-Shabab insurgents, but now Mogadishu has asked them to withdraw. High-stakes strategic interests are at play. Ethiopia and Egypt have been locked in a long-standing dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which Egypt regards as an existential threat. Meanwhile, landlocked Ethiopia has also enraged Somalia over its determination to find a port to lease. It has turned to the breakaway region of Somaliland, dangling the prospect of recognizing its independence—an absolute red line for Mogadishu. The new defense agreement between Egypt and Somalia has underlined just how serious the tensions are. Egypt is planning to send 5,000 soldiers to Somalia to join a new-look African Union force, with a separate 5,000 stationed on the Ethiopian border.

US indictments, sanctions target Russian propaganda network

The US Department of Justice on Sept. 4 announced the seizure of 32 internet domains linked to an alleged Russian government-backed disinformation campaign aimed at influencing US and global audiences. According to the DoJ, the operation, known as "Doppelganger," sought to sway public opinion in favor of Russian interests and interfere in the 2024 US presidential election. The campaign was allegedly orchestrated by several Russian organizations under the supervision of Sergei Kiriyenko, a senior official in the Russian Presidential Administration. These organizations utilized the domains to distribute pro-Russian propaganda and undermine support for Ukraine. The operation used deceptive methods that violated US "money laundering and criminal trademark law."

Russian fighters leave Burkina Faso for Kursk front

Russia is withdrawing 100 of its paramilitary troops from Burkina Faso to assist in the war with Ukraine, reports indicate. The troops are part of a contingent of some 300 fighters from the Medvedi or Bear Brigade—one of the Russian private military companies operating in West Africa—who arrived in Burkina Faso in May to support the country's ruling military junta. In a statement, the group said its forces would return home to support Russia's defense of Kursk oblast against Ukraine's recent cross-border offensive. There are fears the pull-out could embolden jihadist insurgents in Burkina Faso, who recently killed up to 300 people in one of the biggest attacks in years. (BBC News, Kyiv Post)

Escalation in East China Sea

Japan scrambled fighter jets after a Chinese Y-9 surveillance plane "violated the territorial airspace" of the Danjo Islands in the East China Sea, Tokyo's Ministry of Defense said Aug. 26. Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi called the breach "utterly unacceptable" and summoned a Chinese embassy official in Tokyo in protest. The incident constituted the first intrusion of Japanese airspace by a People's Liberation Army aircraft "since we began anti-airspace incursion measures," Hayashi said. A Chinese foreign ministry representative responded that the PLA had "no intention of invading the airspace of any country," and that the incident is under review.

Russia, Mongolia hold joint military exercise

The Russian and Mongolian militaries completed the main phase of a joint exercise Aug. 26—marking the first time Mongolia has hosted drills involving a foreign army within its territory. The maneuvers, dubbed Selenga 2024, were centered around the eastern city of Choibalsan, near the border with China. Armaments including drones, MiG-29 and Su-25 warplanes, Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopters, and Grad rocket launchers were deployed in the main phase of the drill, which simulated a "joint Russian-Mongolian group of troops" retaking a settlement that had been seized by "illegal armed groups," according to the Russian military.

US shifts nuclear posture to confront China

President Biden approved in March a highly classified nuclear posture document for the first time reorienting US deterrent strategy to focus on China's rapid expansion in its nuclear arsenal. The shift comes as the Pentagon believes China's stockpiles will rival the size and diversity of those of the United States and Russia over the next decade. The new "Nuclear Employment Guidance" is so highly classified that there are no electronic copies, and only a small number of hard copies distributed to top national security officials and Pentagon brass. But a copy was just obtained by the New York Times.

Syria: Rojava Kurds clash with Assadist forces

Clashes broke out Aug. 12 between Syrian regime forces and militia of the Kurdish-led Rojava autonomous administration near the Euphrates River in eastern Deir ez-Zor governorate. The clashes centered around the towns of Shuheil and Bukrus, southeast of Deir ez-Zor city. The fighting began after regime forces west of the Euphrates launched surface-to-surface attacks on Kurdish-held towns across the river. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the principal Kurdish-led military formation, said in a statement that an operation against regime positions was carried out "in retaliation for the blood of the martyrs" killed "by artillery shelling from the Syrian regime and National Defense Force mercenaries." The NDF is a pro-regime militia. The violence has displaced dozens of families along the conflict line. (ANF, AA, AP)

Gaza at issue in Nagasaki commemoration

The US ambassador to Japan did not attend this year's official commemoration of the atomic bombing of Nagasaki Aug. 9 in protest of the city's failure to invite Israel. Ambassador Rahm Emanuel said the event had been "politicized" by Nagasaki's decision to exclude the Jewish state. The embassy said Emanuel would honor the victims of the Nagasaki bombing at a ceremony at a Buddhist temple in Tokyo, and that a lower-ranking US official would attend the Nagasaki event. Five other G7 countries and the EU likewise said in a joint letter beforehand that they would send lower-ranked envoys instead of ambassadors to the ceremony. The letter said the exclusion "would result in placing Israel on the same level as countries such as Russia and Belarus," which were not invited to the ceremony for a third consecutive year. But Nagasaki Mayor Shiro Suzuki said his decision was unchanged.

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