A last-minute "permanent ceasefire" may mean that northeast Syria is back from the brink of Arab-Kurdish ethnic war. But ceasefires have repeatedly broken down since fighting resumed earlier this year, with Damascus demanding disbandment of the Rojava autonomous zone, and the integration of its institutions—including its military wing, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)—into the central government. While the new pact sets a more "gradual" pace for this integration, the Kurdish aspiration to regional autonomy and the central government's insistence on centralization may prove a long-term obstacle to peace. In Episode 315 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg weighs the odds for avoiding a conflict that holds the potential for escalation to genocide, with the connivance of the Great Powers that so recently backed the SDF to fight ISIS.

The Kurdish-held border town of Kobani in northern Syria is under siege again, as it was by ISIS in 2014—but this time by forces of the Syrian central government, which has cut off water and power to the town in the dead of winter, with snow on the ground. Since the start of the year, the Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria have lost almost all of the territory they controlled to a new offensive by the central government. Kobani with Hasakah and Qamishli are the last besieged strongholds of the reduced Rojava autonomous zone. And both the US and Russia, which have backed the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) against ISIS, now appear to be cutting them loose—effectively green-lighting the government offensive against them. The US special envoy for Syria, Tom Barrack, has already warned that US support for the SDF is coming to an end. And in the midst of the offensive, Russia has withdrawn its forces from Qamishli, its principal military outpost in Rojava.

The Syrian interim government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) reached an agreement Jan. 18 to immediately halt fighting and integrate SDF-held areas into state institutions. The deal follows days of renewed clashes, in which government forces routed SDF strongholds in the city of Aleppo and then pushed east, taking several towns that had been under the control of the Kurdish-led autonomous administration. Just hours before the agreement was reached, autonomous authorities in the Kurdish region, known as Rojava, had announced a "general mobilization" in support of the SDF, citing an "existential war" launched by Damascus against their territory.

The Pentagon said US and allied forces carried out a wave of air-strikes against ISIS targets across Syria on Jan. 10, although accounts were unclear as to which other countries were involved or what casualties resulted. The raids came as part of a campaign dubbed Operation Hawkeye Strike, launched in response to the deadly ISIS attack on US and Syrian forces in Palmyra last month. Jordan was named as participating in the sorties. (CentCom, BBC News) Jordan also carried out a series of air-strikes supposedly targeting drug traffickers in the closing days of December—the latest in ongoing intermittent Jordanian strikes aimed at breaking up the Captagon smuggling newtorks in Syria. (LWJ) The past week also saw joint British and French strikes on supposed ISIS targets near Palmyra. (BBC News)

Civilians fled Kurdish-majority neighborhoods of Aleppo on Jan. 7 after the Syrian army declared them "closed military zones" and began shelling the areas. Some 300 homes are reported destroyed in the neighborhoods of Sheikh Maqsud and Ashrafiyeh, which have long been under the control of the Kurdish Asayish militia force. The Asayish and the interim government's army blamed each other for initiating the clashes. Thousands have fled through "humanitarian crossings" the army has established for residents to evacuate.

Turkish police detained 357 people on Dec. 30 in large-scale, coordinated operations targeting the Islamic State group, according to the country's Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya.

Authorities carried out raids across 21 provinces one day after a deadly clash between police and ISIS militants in Yalova, a small city south of Istanbul on the Sea of Marmara, amid heightened security ahead of New Year's celebrations. Three police officers and six presumed ISIS militants, all Turkish nationals, were killed in the shoot-out in Yalova, sparked by a raid on suspected safe-house.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres on Dec. 26 condemned that day's deadly mosque bombing in Syria, urging that those responsible be swiftly identified and brought to justice. The explosion tore through the Ali Bin Abi Talib mosque in the Wadi al-Dahab neighborhood of Homs during Friday prayers, killing at least eight people and injuring around 20, according to Syrian authorities. The mosque serves members of the Alawite minority, which has faced violent reprisals since the fall of the Bashar Assad dictatorship last December.

Yemen's separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC), which is said to be backed by the United Arab Emirates, has been rapidly advancing through large parts of the country's south and east, in Hadramawt, al-Mahra and Shabwa provinces. They are taking over control from groups backed by Saudi Arabia, including the Hadramawt Tribal Alliance (HTA). While all forces involved are supposed to be on the same side in a broader anti-Houthi alliance, the move is yet another reminder that Yemen's war is not over, and that it involves a variety of actors and local grievances. (TNH)