The war in Sudan is driving continued refugee flight, leading to a deepening humanitarian crisis in the greater region, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reported Nov. 8. The agency said that more than 3 million people have fled Sudan, seeking safety in neighboring countries, since the war began in April 2023. The refugees are faced with challenges of food shortages and continued rights violations such as killings, sexual violence and looting, as well as natural disasters such as flooding.

President Mahamat Déby has vowed vengeance for an attack by jihadists on an army base in Chad's Lake region that killed at least 40 soldiers Oct. 27. The insurgents who managed to overrun the base are likely to be from Boko Haram's "Bakura" faction, which is concentrated in the northern part of the region, on the Niger-Chad border. They've been involved in a long-running battle for supremacy in the region with the rival Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP). Their commander, Ibrahim Bakura Doro, has resisted both peace overtures and demands for assimilation by the larger ISWAP group. The night-time attack on the Barkaram base, in which weapons and equipment were captured, follows a military sweep through the region earlier in the year by a joint force of Nigerian, Cameroonian and Chadian troops—which at the time was proclaimed a success.

Brutal attacks by the Rapid Support Forces on villages and towns in Sudan's Gezira state, south of Khartoum, have displaced around 120,000 people over the past two weeks, resembling the kind of violence used by the paramilitary group in the Darfur region beginning last year. The attacks were triggered by the defection to the army of the RSF's top commander in Gezira, Abu Aqla Kayka; villages under his control were reportedly targeted. The UN said the attacks left at least 124 people dead and resulted in more than 27 women and girls being raped, though these numbers are likely a massive undercount given survivor testimonies, activist reports, and videos that show rows of bodies wrapped in shrouds. The attacks are among the worst to take place in Gezira since the RSF took over the state in December 2023. The state is considered the country's breadbasket, but farmers have been forced to flee and cropland has been deliberately burnt.

Leaders and activists from the Fur people in Sudan's Central Darfur state on Oct. 15 voiced their rejection of the Rapid Support Forces' establishment of a new "emirate" in the ethnicity's traditional territory for an Arab group that has migrated from the neighboring Central African Republic. They warned of an agenda of demographic change and the empowerment of outside groups at the expense of the indigenous population. The response came after platforms affiliated with the RSF published a video of a celebration held by a group called "Awlad Baraka & Mubarak," marking the establishment of the "emirate." RSF Brig. Gen. Mohamed Adam Bangoz addressed the event.

With conditions among the asylum seekers on Diego Garcia growing dire and the island set to be ceded to Mauritius, the UK is under pressure to relocate the 56 Sri Lankan asylum seekers stranded there, plus eight receiving medical treatment in Rwanda. On Oct. 8, the UK offered to transfer 36 of them to a UN-run transit center in Timișoara, Romania. After six months there, if they do not accept repatriation or re-settlement in another country, they will be accepted to the UK. The offer reverses years of insistence by UK officials that none of them would be brought to the UK. However, lawyers are trying to have the group brought to the UK directly, arguing that they will end up there anyway, and forcing them to spend six months in a Romanian "detention facility" with barred windows would "cause them to suffer further avoidable harm." One British official said the reason for the six-month detour was to ensure that coming to Diego Garcia does not "provide a direct route to the UK." The lawyers say the transfer of sovereignty to Mauritius negates that concern. The Romania plan has also upset the 28 men who did not receive the offer and have been told they will stay on the island indefinitely if they do not accept repatriation. At least two staged a hunger strike after they heard the news, according to one of the asylum seekers in Rwanda. 

Prospects for quelling the renewed M23 insurgency in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo have hit a snag after more recriminations between the Congolese government and Rwanda, which is supporting the rebels with troops and weapons. The two countries participated in talks in late August as part of a long-running Angolan meditation, but several disagreements have since arisen. Rwandan Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe said Kinshasa refused to sign an agreed-upon deal that would have seen Rwanda withdraw its "defense measures" from DRC after Congolese efforts to neutralize the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), a DRC-based militia founded by exiled Rwandan Hutus behind the 1994 genocide against Tutsis. Nduhungirehe said Kinshasa objected to the sequencing of the plan, and wanted the Rwandan withdrawal to happen at the same time as the anti-FDLR operations, not afterwards. By contrast, Congolese Foreign Minister Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner said Rwanda was responsible for obstructing the negotiations, promising to withdraw from DRC but "with no guarantees or concrete details." The M23 conflict reignited in late 2021, and has displaced around 1.7 million people, according to the UN.

The UK announced Oct. 3 that it will transfer sovereignty over the Chagos Islands, now ruled as the British Indian Ocean Territory, to Mauritius after more than two centuries of control.

A joint statement issued by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his Mauritian counterpart Pravind Jugnauth hails the accord as an "historic political agreement on the exercise of sovereignty over the Chagos Archipelago," which will mark the end of British control over the islands. The UK-US military base on the archipelago's principal island of Diego Garcia will remain operational for an initial period of 99 years to ensure its continued "vital role in regional and global security." The UK will be "authorised to exercise the sovereign rights of Mauritius" on Diego Garcia. The decision follows two years of negotiations over the future of the islands between the two nations.

The al-Qaeda-linked JNIM group on Sept. 17 carried out a major attack in Mali's capital, Bamako, with reports suggesting that up to 70 people were killed and hundreds more wounded. Jihadist fighters attacked the city's airport—damaging a plane used by the World Food Program—and stormed a military police school. JNIM only makes rare forays into Bamako, and may be sending a message to the ruling junta that it remains a potent force despite operations launched against it. (TNH)