Piracy off the coast of Somalia is back, underlined by the dramatic rescue of a hijacked Iranian fishing vessel and its crew Nov. 2 by Indian naval forces. There have been at least 15 pirate attacks since the start of the year, compared to five last year and the handful recorded annually since 2013. Piracy was kept in check for over a decade by a combination of private security forces, naval patrols, and land-based development initiatives. But it has historically thrived during periods of domestic political instability—and Somalia is in deep crisis. The conflict between the United States and Iran has added a powerful regional dimension. International naval attention is now on the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, while the insecurity has re-routed maritime traffic closer to Somalia's coastline, creating more opportunities for the hijack-for-ransom business model. Meanwhile, sharply rising inflation and cuts to aid have left many Somalis looking for new incomes, and pirate groups are known to be generous employers. 

A new conflict erupted in Ethiopia's south, compounding a nationwide crisis that has already seen federal forces capture and occupy the northern Tigrayan capital of Mekelle last month. Sparked by an internal border dispute, the fighting in the south has forced up to 50,000 people to flee across the border into Kenya. The clashes were triggered on Oct. 20 when a Somali regional flag was raised in Moyale, a town on the Kenyan border that is jointly administered by Somali and Oromia regions.

If Ethiopia's federal government thought Addis Ababa was insulated from the conflict in its restive Tigray and Amhara regions, drone strikes have forced a reappraisal. Blasts were heard overnight Oct. 1 near the military's headquarters in the west of the city, and another military camp in the south. The seven-member opposition "Alliance for Survival" claimed responsibility. Meanwhile, as fighting worsens, the federal army and pro-government militia appear to be advancing towards northern Tigray's main city of Mekelle. At least 52 civilians were killed in three days of heavy clashes around Alamata, 180 kilometers south of Mekelle. Fighters of the region's ruling party, the TPLF, are also reported to have attacked east into the Afar region—landlocked Ethiopia's strategic corridor to neighboring Djibouti's ports.

Amnesty International on Sept. 29 condemned the Malian armed forces and its partners from the Russian private military company Wagner Group for perpetration of war crimes, including the murder and torture of civilians.

Breakaway Somaliland is pulling out the stops to win US recognition, offering access to its strategic Berbera port, mineral deals, and even a Trump Tower. Recognition may not immediately be in the cards, but Berbera is particularly significant at the moment. It sits close to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the global shipping lane that Yemen's Houthis can potentially close at will. Somaliland is juicing its proposal with the prospect of a base for US forces (there have already been US military visits), and potentially for Israel—the only country to recognize its independence. The conservative Hudson Institute, among other voices in the US political establishment, is pushing Somaliland's case as a "bulwark" against the Houthis—and even Chinese influence.

The Trial Chamber VI of the International Criminal Court (ICC) on Sept. 23 found Mahamat Said Abdel Kani guilty of crimes against humanity committed in the Central African Republic (CAR) in 2013.

Abdel Kani, a former commander of the Séléka militia coalition, was accused of orchestrating widespread attacks against civilians during the conflict in the country—and particularly abuse of detainees at the Office Central de Répression du Banditisme (OCRB), a detention center in the capital, Bangui. He faced charges of crimes against humanity including imprisonment, torture, prosecution, and other inhumane treatment directed at individuals perceived as supporters of former President François Bozizé, as well as the war crimes of torture, cruel treatment, and outrages upon personal dignity.

The UN Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Sudan on Sept. 3 released a new report detailing how external support networks fuel the conflict and escalate civilian harm in the country. The Mission concluded that foreign-sourced weapons, drone systems, components and personnel have significantly expanded the military capabilities of both the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), intensifying the conflict's scale and lethality.

Clashes between the Ethiopian army and Tigrayan forces have led to hundreds of civilians crossing into neighboring Sudan, marking another serious threat to a 2022 peace agreement. Heavy artillery and drones were used during the fighting, which was concentrated in contested western Tigray. Both sides have been amassing troops in recent months and there has been a significant recruitment drive in Tigray, where regional authorities have forcibly conscripted civilians, including children, according to Human Rights Watch.