A last-minute "permanent ceasefire" may mean that northeast Syria is back from the brink of Arab-Kurdish ethnic war. But ceasefires have repeatedly broken down since fighting resumed earlier this year, with Damascus demanding disbandment of the Rojava autonomous zone, and the integration of its institutions—including its military wing, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)—into the central government. While the new pact sets a more "gradual" pace for this integration, the Kurdish aspiration to regional autonomy and the central government's insistence on centralization may prove a long-term obstacle to peace. In Episode 315 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg weighs the odds for avoiding a conflict that holds the potential for escalation to genocide, with the connivance of the Great Powers that so recently backed the SDF to fight ISIS.

The Kurdish-held border town of Kobani in northern Syria is under siege again, as it was by ISIS in 2014—but this time by forces of the Syrian central government, which has cut off water and power to the town in the dead of winter, with snow on the ground. Since the start of the year, the Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria have lost almost all of the territory they controlled to a new offensive by the central government. Kobani with Hasakah and Qamishli are the last besieged strongholds of the reduced Rojava autonomous zone. And both the US and Russia, which have backed the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) against ISIS, now appear to be cutting them loose—effectively green-lighting the government offensive against them. The US special envoy for Syria, Tom Barrack, has already warned that US support for the SDF is coming to an end. And in the midst of the offensive, Russia has withdrawn its forces from Qamishli, its principal military outpost in Rojava.

The UN Human Rights Office raised alarm Jan. 19 over a "sharp hike" in the number of executions globally in 2025. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk articulated the report's key concerns, stating:

My Office monitored an alarming increase in the use of the capital punishment in 2025, especially for offences not meeting the "most serious crimes" threshold required under international law, the continued execution of people convicted of crimes committed as children, as well as persistent secrecy around executions.

This threshold is established by Article 6 of the International Covenant on Civil & Political Rights. The increase primarily came from executions for drug-related offenses in a small number of retentionist states. These are countries that continue to retain capital punishment, as opposed to the growing number of abolitionist states. which do not employ the death penalty.

The Syrian interim government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) reached an agreement Jan. 18 to immediately halt fighting and integrate SDF-held areas into state institutions. The deal follows days of renewed clashes, in which government forces routed SDF strongholds in the city of Aleppo and then pushed east, taking several towns that had been under the control of the Kurdish-led autonomous administration. Just hours before the agreement was reached, autonomous authorities in the Kurdish region, known as Rojava, had announced a "general mobilization" in support of the SDF, citing an "existential war" launched by Damascus against their territory.

The Pentagon said US and allied forces carried out a wave of air-strikes against ISIS targets across Syria on Jan. 10, although accounts were unclear as to which other countries were involved or what casualties resulted. The raids came as part of a campaign dubbed Operation Hawkeye Strike, launched in response to the deadly ISIS attack on US and Syrian forces in Palmyra last month. Jordan was named as participating in the sorties. (CentCom, BBC News) Jordan also carried out a series of air-strikes supposedly targeting drug traffickers in the closing days of December—the latest in ongoing intermittent Jordanian strikes aimed at breaking up the Captagon smuggling newtorks in Syria. (LWJ) The past week also saw joint British and French strikes on supposed ISIS targets near Palmyra. (BBC News)

Civilians fled Kurdish-majority neighborhoods of Aleppo on Jan. 7 after the Syrian army declared them "closed military zones" and began shelling the areas. Some 300 homes are reported destroyed in the neighborhoods of Sheikh Maqsud and Ashrafiyeh, which have long been under the control of the Kurdish Asayish militia force. The Asayish and the interim government's army blamed each other for initiating the clashes. Thousands have fled through "humanitarian crossings" the army has established for residents to evacuate.

Syrian interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa's White House meeting with Donald Trump followed the removal of his Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) from the list of designated "terrorist organizations" both at the State Department and at the UN. It also coincided with raids against ISIS by his security forces, raising the prospect of his government being invited to join the US-led Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS. The Washington visit also came just a month after al-Sharaa's similar trip to meet Vladimir Putin in Moscow, where a deal was brokered allowing Russia to keep its military bases in Syria. Amid all this, Syria continues to see forced disappearances and other abuses targetting Druze, Alawites and Kurds—pointing to the looming threat of an ethnic or sectarian internal war. The US troop presence in Syria is largely embedded among the Kurdish forces in the east. As al-Sharaa becomes a new "anti-terrorist" partner (or proxy) for the Great Powers, will these troops be withdrawn—providing a "green light" for the Damascus government to attack the Kurdish autonomous zone? In Episode 305 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg weighs the risks at this critical moment in Syria's transition process, nearly one year after the fall of the Assad dictatorship.

A "small force" of US troops will remain at Iraq's Ain al-Asad air base in order to fight ISIS, the Baghdad government announced Oct. 20. The decision reverses plans for a full withdrawal of US forces from the base. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani said that a force of up to 350 Pentagon advisors and support personnel would stay at the base in western Iraq, as well as al-Harir base in Iraqi Kurdistan. Other bases are seeing are seeing "gradual reductions" in US troops, according to the Associated Press.