If Ethiopia's federal government thought Addis Ababa was insulated from the conflict in its restive Tigray and Amhara regions, drone strikes have forced a reappraisal. Blasts were heard overnight Oct. 1 near the military's headquarters in the west of the city, and another military camp in the south. The seven-member opposition "Alliance for Survival" claimed responsibility. Meanwhile, as fighting worsens, the federal army and pro-government militia appear to be advancing towards northern Tigray's main city of Mekelle. At least 52 civilians were killed in three days of heavy clashes around Alamata, 180 kilometers south of Mekelle. Fighters of the region's ruling party, the TPLF, are also reported to have attacked east into the Afar region—landlocked Ethiopia's strategic corridor to neighboring Djibouti's ports.

Breakaway Somaliland is pulling out the stops to win US recognition, offering access to its strategic Berbera port, mineral deals, and even a Trump Tower. Recognition may not immediately be in the cards, but Berbera is particularly significant at the moment. It sits close to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the global shipping lane that Yemen's Houthis can potentially close at will. Somaliland is juicing its proposal with the prospect of a base for US forces (there have already been US military visits), and potentially for Israel—the only country to recognize its independence. The conservative Hudson Institute, among other voices in the US political establishment, is pushing Somaliland's case as a "bulwark" against the Houthis—and even Chinese influence.

The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) on Sept. 22 expressed concern that mass displacement and the overall humanitarian crisis in Yemen will intensify as the ongoing conflict escalates. UNHCR's Yemen representative Armen Yedgaryan stressed the scale of the disaster at a press briefing in Geneva, stating:

Clashes between the Ethiopian army and Tigrayan forces have led to hundreds of civilians crossing into neighboring Sudan, marking another serious threat to a 2022 peace agreement. Heavy artillery and drones were used during the fighting, which was concentrated in contested western Tigray. Both sides have been amassing troops in recent months and there has been a significant recruitment drive in Tigray, where regional authorities have forcibly conscripted civilians, including children, according to Human Rights Watch.

The blocking by the US of UN funding to African Union (AU) forces in Somalia starting next year is a body blow to a mission that has long been on financial life-support. The UN Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS) provides the logistical backing critical to the functioning of the AU mission. Without that underpinning, it's hard to see how the AU's 11,800-strong force can continue. That became evident when Washington vetoed the application to Somalia of UN Resolution 2719 on peacekeeping cost-sharing. The AU's near two-decade mission has done significant work. Despite heavy casualties, it succeeded in ousting al-Shabab from Mogadishu—a daunting task the UN and the rest of the international system was unwilling to take on—and continued to protect Somalia's fractious political elite from the jihadist insurgency. But the inability of Somalia to grow and deploy its own security forces to consolidate territorial gains secured by the AU resulted in deadly mission creep and effectively tore up any putative exit plan. Instead, the AU has soldiered on in the absence of a workable political strategy, and with ever-shrinking sources of financing.

Sudan has accused Ethiopia of allowing drones to be launched from its territory to carry out attacks against Sudanese government forces. This marks the first time Sudan has directly accused its neighbor of involvement in the three-year civil war against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). In a March 2 statement, Sudan's Foreign Ministry warned of unspecified consequences. The drone accusation follows reports of the construction of an RSF training base in northwest Ethiopia, paid for by the United Arab Emirates. (TNH)

Israel has become the first country on Earth to recognize the de facto independent Republic of Somaliland, in exchange for a commitment from Somaliland to join the Abraham Accords and recognize Israel. However, not three years ago, Israel joined the US as the only two countries on Earth to recognize Morocco's claim to sovereignty over the disputed territory of Western Sahara—a betrayal of the occupied Sahrawi Arab people who seek an independent state. And of course both these deals constitute a betrayal of the Palestinians. Somaliland and the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic should be natural allies, and instead they are being pitted against each other in the Great Power game. Yet another example of how a global divide-and-rule racket is the essence of the state system. In Episode 311 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg breaks it down.

A group of 21 Arab, African and Islamic nations on Dec. 27 issued a joint statement formally rejecting Israel's recognition of Somaliland as an independent state. The statement asserted that recognizing Somaliland as a nation independent of Somalia constitutes a grave violation of international law, emphasizing the "serious repercussions of such [an] unprecedented measure on peace and security in the Horn of Africa, the Red Sea, and its serious effects on international peace and security as a whole."