Breakaway Somaliland is pulling out the stops to win US recognition, offering access to its strategic Berbera port, mineral deals, and even a Trump Tower. Recognition may not immediately be in the cards, but Berbera is particularly significant at the moment. It sits close to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the global shipping lane that Yemen's Houthis can potentially close at will. Somaliland is juicing its proposal with the prospect of a base for US forces (there have already been US military visits), and potentially for Israel—the only country to recognize its independence. The conservative Hudson Institute, among other voices in the US political establishment, is pushing Somaliland's case as a "bulwark" against the Houthis—and even Chinese influence.

The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) on Sept. 22 expressed concern that mass displacement and the overall humanitarian crisis in Yemen will intensify as the ongoing conflict escalates. UNHCR's Yemen representative Armen Yedgaryan stressed the scale of the disaster at a press briefing in Geneva, stating:

Yemen is closer to all-out war than at any other point since 2022, UN Special Envoy Hans Grundberg told the Security Council on Aug. 13 amid an upsurge of violence in and around the divided country. A Houthi attack on a cargo ship in the Bab el-Mandeb strait on Aug. 11 killed six people, while fresh clashes between Houthi and government forces erupted in the frontline city of Taiz the following day. The Houthis said a drone strike the day after that on Saudi Arabia's Jizan oil refinery, on the Red Sea just over the border from Yemen, was a response to Saudi violations of Yemeni airspace. (TNH)

The righties are apoplectic that Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey famously portrays a Black Helen—displaying their ignorance of the actual intercourse between Africa and the ancient Greek world. But apart from the cultural politics of the movie, the geopolitics of the Trojan War have all too much to say about the contemporary world crisis. Then, the Bosphorus and Dardanelles constituted the strategic chokepoints at issue, just as the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb do today. And the Bosphorus & Dardanelles could suddenly become critically strategic if Turkey becomes embroiled in either the Middle East war or the Ukraine war—or both. Finally, the movie itself has become embroiled in a geopolitical dispute: Nolan shot his cinematic spectacle partly in Moroccan-occupied Western Sahara—not, as the film credits say, "Morocco." This is another near-forgotten conflict that now shows signs of re-escalating—and may have been at issue in the recent deadly incident at the Spanish North African exclave of Ceuta, situated just within the strategic Strait of Gibraltar. The current world crisis could bring about a civilization collapse far more decisive and complete than the Bronze Age Collapse that followed the Trojan War.

As the US-Iran war escalates, more countries in the Middle East have—officially or unofficially—entered the fray over the past week. Saudi Arabia said July 30 that 14 countries (including Egypt, Türkiye and Bahrain) have so far joined an alliance it set up to protect shipping and energy supplies through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The alliance, which the kingdom calls defensive, formed in reaction to the blockade by Yemen's Houthi rebels against Saudi ships in the strait. Among those that has signed on is the internationally recognized (but largely exiled) government of Yemen, which would presumably be onside with reported plans by Saudi Arabia to launch a ground offensive against the Houthis.

Yemen's unrecognized Houthi administration warned that they are prepared to close the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait, mouth of the Red Sea. This is a second maritime chokepoint for oil from the Arabian Peninsula after the Strait of Hormuz, now effectively closed due to Washington's conflict with Iran. In a post on X April 18, Houthi deputy foreign minister Hussein al-Ezzi said: "If Sana'a decides to close the Bab al-Mandab, then all of mankind and jinn will be utterly powerless to open it... [T]herefore, it is best for Trump—and the complicit world—to immediately end all practices and policies that obstruct peace, and to show the respect required for the rights of our people and nation." (Times of India)

Yemen's separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC), which is said to be backed by the United Arab Emirates, has been rapidly advancing through large parts of the country's south and east, in Hadramawt, al-Mahra and Shabwa provinces. They are taking over control from groups backed by Saudi Arabia, including the Hadramawt Tribal Alliance (HTA). While all forces involved are supposed to be on the same side in a broader anti-Houthi alliance, the move is yet another reminder that Yemen's war is not over, and that it involves a variety of actors and local grievances. (TNH)

On World Humanitarian Day in August, World Health Organization director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus released a statement calling attention to intensifying attacks on healthcare workers and facilities, which constitute war crimes under international humanitarian law. "We must stop this becoming the norm," he wrote. The events of the past two weeks suggest such attacks are now already the norm.