Iran's retaliation: choreographed charade?
On June 23, two days after the US carried out air-strikes against Iran's nuclear sites in what is being dubbed Operation Midnight Hammer, Iran launched missiles at al-Udeid air base in Qatar, headquarters for US Central Command's regional operations and host to some 8,000 US troops. The US said nearly all the missiles were intercepted and there were no casualties. In a post on TruthSocial, President Trump shortly later claimed a ceasefire between Israel and Iran has been reached, with Israeli media reporting that the truce was brokered by Qatar. Sources also told Reuters that Iran had tipped off Qatar authorities before the attack, who then warned the US—accounting for the light damage and raising the possibility that, as in US-Iran brinkmanship of early 2020, the supposed Iranian retaliation was choreographed to allow Tehran to save face. The US, Israel and Iran alike are now all claiming victory, and it remains unclear how seriously Tehran's nuclear capabilities have in fact been degraded. (BBC News, The Guardian, JP, TWZ, NYT, NDTV, FirstPost)
Shortly before the ceasefire went into effect, Iran fired two ballistic missiles at the southern Israeli city of Beersheba. Israeli missile defense intercepted one, while the second struck a residential apartment building, killing four people and wounding at least 22. Israel also fired more missiles into Iran. (LWJ, NBC)
It is estimated that Iran has fired 590 missiles at Israel since the onset of the war, leaving 28 people dead and over 3,000 wounded. Estimates of the number of Iranians killed in Israeli strikes range from 400 to 800. (LWJ, UN News)
Iran to suspend cooperation with IAEA
The national security committee of Iran's parliament on June 23 approved a legislative proposal to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Under the proposal, IAEA surveillance cameras would be removed from Iran's nuclear facilities, and on-site inspections and submission of periodic reports to the UN agency would be halted as long as the security of nuclear facilities is not guaranteed. (Reuters)
IAEA chief Rafael Grossi is demanding immediate access to the targeted sites to assess the damage that he said is likely "very significant." He has also called for an emergency meeting of the IAEA at its Vienna headquarters. (UN News, EuroNews)
Hours before the Israeli air-strikes began June 12, the IAEA's Board of Governors adopted a resolution finding that Iran had breached its NPT obligations by conducting secret activities involving undeclared nuclear material.
Trump says he gave Iran permission to bomb US base
The Washington Times reported that at a press conference at the NATO Summit in the Netherlands on June 25, Trump revealed that he had given Iran permission to bomb al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar.
"They said, 'We’re going to shoot them. Is one o'clock OK?' I said it's fine," Trump said. "And everybody was emptied off the base so they couldn't get hurt, except for the gunners."
This is confirmed by a transcript of the press conference. (TPM)
Iran enacts law suspending cooperation with IAEA
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on July 1 signed into law a parliamentary bill passed last week that suspends cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
The "Law on obligating the government to suspend cooperation with the IAEA," was passed during a parliamentary session and garnered the overwhelming support of the 223 lawmakers present, with 221 votes in favor of the bill. Pezeshkian approved the legislation in accordance with Article 123 of the Iranian Constitution, which requires the president to sign laws passed by the Assembly once all legal procedures are completed. The directive has since been sent to the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, the Supreme National Security Council, and the Foreign Ministry for prompt implementation.
This legislation marks a significant escalation in Tehran's defiance of the international community. After the killing of at least 14 Iranian nuclear scientists at the hands of Israel, Iran has become increasingly cautious about engaging with Western countries.
The IAEA’s most recent report presented evidence that Iran was producing uranium enriched to 60%, amounting to hundreds of kilograms, without offering any legitimate explanation for such large-scale enrichment. According to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement, Iran was required to keep its enrichment activities below the agreed 3.67%. Iran expressed dissatisfaction with the IAEA's findings, accusing the organization of lacking impartiality and being influenced by Western powers.
Severing ties with the IAEA would prevent the agency from carrying out crucial monitoring and inspections, including satellite surveillance and on-site assessments. (Jurist)
Iran to cooperate with UN nuclear watchdog