A Jan. 12 suicide blast in Istanbul's historic Sultan Ahmet district killed 10, at least eight of them German tourists. Turkish authorities have detained 68 supposed ISIS operatives in the attack. In news sure to warm the hearts of Europe's xenophobes, Turkish authorities are saying the actual perpetrator had recently registered as a Syrian refugee. (BBC News, Today's Zaman, Reuters) Given that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has not tried pin the blame on the Kurdish guerillas of the PKK, the evidence that ISIS was behind the blast must be pretty darn incontrovertible. However, Erdogan couldn't keep from exploiting the timing of the attack to take some bogus shots at the PKK and their foreign left-wing sympathizers...

World War 4 Report has been keeping a dispassionate record of Barack Obama's moves in dismantling, continuing and escalating (he has done all three) the oppressive apparatus of the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) established by the Bush White House. This year, the stakes got much higher, with multiple foreign interventions in Syria and ISIS striking in Europe. On the night of Obama's 2016 State of the Union address, we offer the following annotated assessment of which moves over the past year have been on balance positive, neutral and negative, and arrive at an overall score:

At least two members of Libya's Petroleum Facilities Guard were killed Jan. 4 as ISIS militants attacked the Sidra and Ras Lanouf oil export terminals. Militants launched two suicide car-bomb attacks at the security gate of the Sidra facility in a diversionary strike while another force of up to a dozen vehicles looped south and attacked Ras Lanouf, some 30 kilometers to the east. One of the facility's storage tanks was set ablaze in the assault. The attack comes two weeks after French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian warned that ISIS was planning to seize Libya's oil facilities. Sidra and Ras Lanouf are under control of the internationally recognized government based in Libya's east, but last year were the scene of battles as Libya Dawn forces loyal to the Tripoli-based regime attempted to take the facilities. Sidra and Ras Lanouf lie near the border between the rival regimes' territories They also lie just east of Sirte, the principal ISIS stronghold in Libya. (Libya Herald, BBC News, CBS, Jan. 4)

While the world media cheer the taking of Ramadi in Iraq—supposedly by government troops, but in fact spearheaded by sectarian Shi'ite militias—comparatively little note is made of advances against ISIS by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). An alliance of revolutionary Kurds and secular Arab militias, the SDF continues to take ground from ISIS in Syria's north. On Dec. 27, the SDF announced the taking of the strategic Tishreen Dam, which had been held by ISIS for over a year, and generates electricity for much of Syria's north. Its taking will ease electricity and water shortages in Kobani, the Kurdish town where the tide was first turned against ISIS in the region a year ago. SDF officer Rami Abdel Rahman told the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights that the eastern Euphrates Valley is now cleared of ISIS and "the battles are now on the western bank of the river." (Rudaw, Dec. 27)

Ahead of next month's planned meeting between Syrian opposition groups and the government of Bashar al-Assad, Voice of America writes: "But already, there is a sense that the talks, advocated by the United States, are doomed to fail." Among those quoted is former CIA director James Woolsey, who told VOA: "I haven't seen any indication that the US has a coherent plan for dealing with failed states." Also quoted is Lahur Talabani, intelligence chief for Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government, who said: "There is no Syria or Iraq. With the arrival of [ISIS] in the region, they removed the borders that were put in place." 

It is looking like the supposed diplomatic breakthrough on Syria could actually end up only escalating the war. US Secretary of State John Kerry met Russia's President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin last week to hash out a common position. (AFP, Dec. 15) This came just days after Kerry explicitly disavowed that the US is seeking "regime change" in Syria—making the US tilt to Assad clearer than ever, and vindicating Putin in his move to start bombing Syira. On Dec. 18, the UN Security Council adopted  a resolution establishing a six-month time-table for "credible, inclusive and non-sectarian governance" in Syria. "Free and fair" elections are to be held within 18 months under UN supervision with all Syrians, including members of the diaspora, eligible to vote. However, the official press release on the resolution made no mention of dictator Bashar Assad—and the notion that he will preside over such a transition defies five years of horrific reality.

Frustratingly vague accounts indicate that a contingent of US Special Forces sent to fight ISIS in Libya were chased off by a local militia. The troops chose to leave "in an effort to avoid conflict," a US Africa Command spokesman told the BBC, but doesn't tell us much about the hostile militia. Stars & Stripes says the US troops were sent to an airbase near the ISIS-held town of Sabratha, in Libya's west, but doesn't tell us which of the country's rival regimes controls the base. Libya Herald names the base as al-Wattiyah, controlled by forces loyal to the government of Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thinni. That is the internationally-recognized government, based in the eastern city of Bayda, with its parliament in Tobruk. Sabratha and al-Wattiyah are actually west of Tripoli, seat of the Libya Dawn coalition that controls most of the country's west, but appears to be a western pocket loyal to the Thinni government—now threatened by ISIS. It appears uncertain if the hostile militia was ostensibly loyal to the eastern regime. Representatives of the rival regimes signed a deal in Morocco on this week, agreeing to form a national unity government—but the incident at al-Wattiyah indicates how tenuous their actual control of ground forces is, even in areas ostensibly under their control.

On the evening of Dec. 10, International Human Rights Day, activists gathered at New York City's Columbus Circle, overlooked by the Trump International Hotel, for a rally in solidarity with Iraqi and Syrian refugees—under the slogan "Human Rights TRUMP Oppression." Favored chants included "Say it loud, say it clear; Refugees are welcome here!" and "Dump Trump!"—an exhortation aimed at the GOP over the candidate's call for banning all Muslims from entering the US, but the latest in his relentless barrage of xenophobic bluster. Featured speakers included representatives of the Arab American Association of New York, MENA Solidarity Network, Queer Detainee Empowerment Project, Black Lives Matter—and a group of Syrian Americans, accompanied by a refugee recently arrived from war-torn Homs, whose comments in Arabic were translated. This group spoke against a backdrop of Syria's rebel flag and led chants of "Assad, ISIS, they're the same; Only difference is the name!"