At least 65 soldiers—including three senior officers—have been killed in jihadist raids on military garrisons in Nigeria's northeast this month. Five bases were overrun by the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP)—four of them in a single night March 5-6, showing a notable level of coordination. Military equipment was also torched or captured, including armored vehicles. ISWAP's "Burn the Camps" offensive began last year, and is accelerating against an overstretched military. (TNH)

Violence has once again broken out between Afghanistan and Pakistan, with Islamabad declaring "open war" on Kabul. Late on Feb. 26, Afghan forces fired on military bases across the border in Pakistan, reportedly using drones. Pakistan retaliated early overnight on Feb. 27, bombing what it said were military and infrastructure targets in Kabul and several border provinces. Afghanistan's Islamic Emirate government said its attacks were a response to Pakistani airstrikes on Feb. 21 and 22 that reportedly killed at least 13 civilians in Nangarhar province. Pakistan accuses the Taliban-led government of harboring fighters from the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP)—accused of being behind recent attacks in Islamabad and Peshawar. Afghan Minister of Interior Sirajuddin Haqqani said the "doors for dialogue" remain open but insisted that if Afghanistan continues to be attacked, it will respond. Iran, a mutual neighbor, has offered to mediate between the two sides. Türkiye and Qatar helped to forge a fragile ceasefire after a previous flare-up in October.

Senior UN officials told the Security Council on Feb. 13 that Syria's fragile political transition has gained momentum following a landmark agreement between Damascus and Kurdish authorities in the northeast. Still, they warned that renewed violence in the south, Israeli incursions, and deep humanitarian needs continue to underscore the precarious path to stability.

A military drone strike in western Niger killed at least 17 civilians, including four children, and injured at least 13 others when it hit a crowded market on Jan. 6, according to an investigation by Human Rights Watch (HRW) released Feb. 9.

A last-minute "permanent ceasefire" may mean that northeast Syria is back from the brink of Arab-Kurdish ethnic war. But ceasefires have repeatedly broken down since fighting resumed earlier this year, with Damascus demanding disbandment of the Rojava autonomous zone, and the integration of its institutions—including its military wing, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)—into the central government. While the new pact sets a more "gradual" pace for this integration, the Kurdish aspiration to regional autonomy and the central government's insistence on centralization may prove a long-term obstacle to peace. In Episode 315 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg weighs the odds for avoiding a conflict that holds the potential for escalation to genocide, with the connivance of the Great Powers that so recently backed the SDF to fight ISIS.

The Kurdish-held border town of Kobani in northern Syria is under siege again, as it was by ISIS in 2014—but this time by forces of the Syrian central government, which has cut off water and power to the town in the dead of winter, with snow on the ground. Since the start of the year, the Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria have lost almost all of the territory they controlled to a new offensive by the central government. Kobani with Hasakah and Qamishli are the last besieged strongholds of the reduced Rojava autonomous zone. And both the US and Russia, which have backed the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) against ISIS, now appear to be cutting them loose—effectively green-lighting the government offensive against them. The US special envoy for Syria, Tom Barrack, has already warned that US support for the SDF is coming to an end. And in the midst of the offensive, Russia has withdrawn its forces from Qamishli, its principal military outpost in Rojava.

The Syrian interim government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) reached an agreement Jan. 18 to immediately halt fighting and integrate SDF-held areas into state institutions. The deal follows days of renewed clashes, in which government forces routed SDF strongholds in the city of Aleppo and then pushed east, taking several towns that had been under the control of the Kurdish-led autonomous administration. Just hours before the agreement was reached, autonomous authorities in the Kurdish region, known as Rojava, had announced a "general mobilization" in support of the SDF, citing an "existential war" launched by Damascus against their territory.

The Pentagon said US and allied forces carried out a wave of air-strikes against ISIS targets across Syria on Jan. 10, although accounts were unclear as to which other countries were involved or what casualties resulted. The raids came as part of a campaign dubbed Operation Hawkeye Strike, launched in response to the deadly ISIS attack on US and Syrian forces in Palmyra last month. Jordan was named as participating in the sorties. (CentCom, BBC News) Jordan also carried out a series of air-strikes supposedly targeting drug traffickers in the closing days of December—the latest in ongoing intermittent Jordanian strikes aimed at breaking up the Captagon smuggling newtorks in Syria. (LWJ) The past week also saw joint British and French strikes on supposed ISIS targets near Palmyra. (BBC News)