With his Christmas air-strikes on Nigeria, Trump is blundering into a conflict fundamentally driven by desertification related to the very climate change that he denies, and which now threatens democratic rule throughout the West African region. And while the Muslim-Christian sectarian strife that Trump hypes is a large element of the situation, the violence has gone both ways—and also targeted Muslim minorities such as Shi'ites, and even indigenous Jews. Furthermore, making Christians the perceived beneficiaries of imperialist intervention is only likely to exacerbate the tensions and make Christians more of a target. In Episode 310 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg takes an in-depth and unsparing look. 

US President Donald Trump on Nov. 1 said that he has ordered the Pentagon, or the "Department of War," to prepare contingency plans for potential military action in Nigeria. Trump alleged that the Nigerian government has failed to protect Christian communities from violent extremist attacks.

The so-called Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) insurgent group has launched its most successful military campaign to date in northeast Nigeria's Lake Chad Basin region. Throughout May, ISWAP raided a series of supposedly impenetrable army bases, forcing the military's withdrawal and the displacement of civilian communities—some of whom had been recently resettled by the Borno State government following its closure of internally displaced persons camps in the state capital, Maiduguri.

President Mahamat Déby has vowed vengeance for an attack by jihadists on an army base in Chad's Lake region that killed at least 40 soldiers Oct. 27. The insurgents who managed to overrun the base are likely to be from Boko Haram's "Bakura" faction, which is concentrated in the northern part of the region, on the Niger-Chad border. They've been involved in a long-running battle for supremacy in the region with the rival Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP). Their commander, Ibrahim Bakura Doro, has resisted both peace overtures and demands for assimilation by the larger ISWAP group. The night-time attack on the Barkaram base, in which weapons and equipment were captured, follows a military sweep through the region earlier in the year by a joint force of Nigerian, Cameroonian and Chadian troops—which at the time was proclaimed a success.

At least 81 people were killed in an attack by militants on the village of Mafa, in Nigeria's northeastern Yobe state. A statement listing grievances against the village was left at the scene in the name of Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), a Boko Haram splinter group. The Sept. 1 attack appears to have been in revenge for villagers alerting the military to the insurgents' presence in the area—which lies on a smuggling route to ISWAP bases in the Lake Chad region. (Al Jazeera, TNH, NYT) 

The recent closure of all eight official displacement camps in Maiduguri, the capital of Borno State in conflict-torn northeast Nigeria, has led to a fresh wave of violence and displacement. More than 150,000 people who were relocated from their camps may now be forced to flee again due to the insecurity and lack of protection in their resettlement sites.

In mid-March, the situation intensified when insurgents abducted an unspecified number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) who had left their camps to gather firewood. Estimates suggest at least 200 IDPs were taken and only nine have returned.

In Episode 161 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg provides an overview of the under-reported conflicts in West Africa, where government forces and allied paramilitary groups battle multiple jihadist insurgencies affiliated either with ISIS or al-Qaeda on a franchise model. Horrific massacres have been committed by both sides, but the Western media have only recently started to take note because of the geopolitical angle that has emerged: both Mali and Burkina Faso have cut long-standing security ties with France, the former colonial power, and brought in mercenaries from Russia's Wagner Group. In both countries, the pastoralist Fulani people have been stigmatized as "terrorists" and targeted for extra-judicial execution and even massacre—a potentially pre-genocidal situation. But government air-strikes on Fulani communities in Nigeria have received no coverage in the Western media, because of the lack of any geopolitical rivalry there; Nigeria remains firmly in the Anglo-American camp. Listen on SoundCloud or via Patreon.

In Episode 88 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg revisits his predictions from 20 years ago and from a month ago about what the world would look like on the 20th anniversary of 9-11. The attack, and Dubya Bush's Global War on Terrorism, did not lead to a wave of new attacks within the US, as the jihad has proved more concerned with the struggle within Islam. But this has meant an invisible catastrophe for the Muslim world. The ongoing wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Yemen get at least some international media attention. There are many more nearly forgotten wars and genocides: the serial massacres in Pakistan, the insurgency in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, the Boko Haram war in Nigeria that is now spilling into Cameroon, the mounting massacres in the Sahel nations. Even the insurgency in Somalia, where the US has had a military footprint, wins little coverage—despite the fact that it is spilling into Kenya. The insurgency in Mozambique has now prompted an African-led multinational military intervention. The insurgency on the Philippine island of Mindanao has been met with air-strikes. All waged by entities claiming loyalty to either al-Qaeda or ISIS. The new imperial doctrine appears to be that this violence is acceptable as long as it is not visited upon the West—as now admitted to by the elite global management.