Turkey
China factor in the Trump world order
This is very telling. While Kremlin mouthpiece RT is now bashing the anti-Trump protesters in the US, China Daily is gushing with enthusiasm for them. At first, this seems a little counter-intuitive. In some obvious ways, Trump's victory is good news for Beijing. Trump says he will pull the US out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal on his first day in the White House. (BBC News) On the campaign trail, he blasted the TPP as "a disaster done and pushed by special interests who want to rape our country." (ChinaWorker) Beijing views the TPP as a bid for US dominance in the Asia-Pacific region, and a reaction to China's territorial ambitions and superpower aspirations. Just as the US-backed TPP excludes China, Beijing is pushing a rival Pacific Rim trade initiative, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), that excludes the United States. After the US election results, China's Commerce Ministry announced a new push to conclude negotiations on the RCEP. (Reuters)
EU Parliament votes to freeze Turkey accession talks
The European Parliament on Nov. 24 voted to halt EU accession negotiations with Turkey due to the government's "disproportionate repressive measures" after a failed coup in July. This vote is non-binding, but represents a strong message to the EU ministers before their December meeting to discuss Turkey's 11-year bid for membership. The MEPs stated that the actions taken by the Turkish government "violate basic rights and freedoms protected by the Turkish Constitution," and that "In partnerships, the will to cooperate has to be two-sided... Turkey is not showing [the] political will [to cooperate] as the government's actions are further diverting Turkey from its European path." The freezing of negotiations on this basis is provided for in Article 5 of the Turkey-EU Negotiating Framework (PDF). However, the MEPs believe Turkey should still "remain anchored" to the EU.
The new Axis: Moscow, Damascus, Washington
Assad regime and Russian warplanes resumed their bombardment of Aleppo Nov. 15 after the "humanitarian pause" announced last month. Damascus state TV boasted of "precision weapons to target terrorist positions," of course. Activists on the ground report an assault of unprecedented intensity, with bombs falling virtually constantly. The assault had been threatened in mass text messages sent to residents of rebel-held east Aleppo by the regime, instructing them to leave within 24 hours. The campaign of targeting hospitals has resumed, and eastern Aleppo is now without a single hospital operating at full capacity, the Syrian American Medical Society reports. One of those struck this week was a children's hospital, forcing staff to evacuate babies to safety. (EA Worldview, CNN, Nov. 19; CNN, Nov. 15)
Syria and Iraq in the Trump world order
It's clear that President Obama had set a goal to take both Mosul and Raqqa from ISIS before leaving office, and bequeath these victories to his successor Hillary Clinton. But both of these battles hold the potential both for humanitarian disaster and a violent aftermath as Arabs, Kurds, Sunnis and Shi'ites contend for liberated territory. Now all this will instead be bequeathed to Donald Trump—with no savvy about the region, and a blatant appetite for destruction. This dramatically escalates the potential for disaster. It is pretty clear Trump intends to divide Syria with Putin the way Hitler divided Poland with Stalin. The US will take Raqqa and the east; Russia will establish a reduced Assad state as a protectorate around Damascus and Latakia in the west. Whether the US will be able to control its sphere amid social collapse and sectarian maelstrom is another matter.
UN demands Turkey release international judge
The president of the UN Mechanism for International Criminal Tribunals, Theodor Meron, demanded (PDF) the release of Turkish judge Aydin Sefa Akay in an address to the UN General Assembly on Nov. 9. The General Assembly had elected Akay as a judge to the MICT in 2011. Turkish officials detained Akay in September after a failed coup against the Turkish government. Turkey's actions violated the diplomatic immunity of international judges, said Meron. In his address, Meron called for "Judge Akay's immediate release from detention and the cessation of all legal proceedings against him."
Turkey: Kurdish opposition leaders arrested
Turkey's Interior Ministry confirmed Nov. 3 that 11 lawmakers with the leftist and Kuridish-led Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) lawmakers have been detained by police in operations across the country, ostensibly as part of a terrorism investigation. Those detained include HDP co-chairs Selahattin Demirtas and Figen Yuksekdag. The arrests come as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is seizing draconian powers in the wake of July's attempted coup. Hours after the arrests, a bomb attack outside a police station in Diyarbakir left eight dead and over 100 wounded. As in previous recent terror attacks in Turkey, authorities initially blamed the leftist Kurdish guerillas of the PKK, but it was subsequently claimed by ISIS. (Kurdish Question, Kurdish Question, Anadolu Agency)
Turkey: Diyarbakir mayors detained on 'terrorism'
Diyarbakır mayor Gültan Kışanak, a member of the Democratic Regions' Party (DBP), and her co-mayor Fırat Anlı were arrested by Turkish authorities Oct. 30 as part of an anti-terrorism investigation. The Diyarbakır Chief Public Prosecutor's Office charged Kışanak with "being a member of an armed terrorist group," while Anlı was charged with "trying to separate land under the state's sovereignty." Ayla Akat Ata, a former lawmaker of the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP), forerunner of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), was also detained at a protest against the arrest of the co-mayors. Akat was charged with "managing a terrorist organization." An HDP leader called Akat's detention a "kidnapping, not an arrest." Said HDP co-chair Selahattin Demirtaş: "If you call it an arrest, then you accept that the law made a decision and the legal mechanism works. Arrest is a legal term, but there is no law. This is abduction and kidnapping." (Hurriyet Daily News, Daily Sabah)
Syria: fall of Dabiq fails to spark apocalypse
Well, here's some good news. Free Syrian Army forces, backed by Turkey, this week took the town of Dabiq from ISIS. The small town in northern Aleppo governorate is of little strategic significance but great symbolic import. ISIS had promised a final apocalyptic battle between the Muslims and unbelievers would take place there. Instead, faced with Turkish warplanes, the jihadists ignominiously withdrew. Conveniently reinterpreting a prophetic hadith, ISIS promptly changed the name of its magazine from Dabiq to Roumiya. That means Rome—taken to signify Europe and the West. According to the hadith of Abu Hurayrah, a companion of the Prophet, Muhammad said: "The Last Hour would not come until the Romans land at al-A'maq or in Dabiq. An army consisting of the best of the people of the Earth at that time will come from Medina [to defeat them]." (ARA News, Oct. 17; RFE/RL, Oct. 9)
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