Breakaway Somaliland is pulling out the stops to win US recognition, offering access to its strategic Berbera Port, mineral deals, and even a Trump Tower. Recognition may not immediately be in the cards, but Berbera is particularly significant at the moment. It sits close to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the global shipping lane Yemen’s Houthis can potentially close at will. Somaliland is juicing its proposal with the prospect of a base for US forces (there have already been US military visits), and potentially for Israel—the only country to recognize its independence. The conservative Hudson Institute, among others in the US establishment, is pushing Somaliland's case as a "bulwark" against the Houthis—and even Chinese influence.

Meanwhile, the so-called "Berbera axis" has redefined Red Sea competition over Africa's coastline, accelerating regional fragmentation. The four-party coalition of Somaliland, Israel, Ethiopia and the UAE  directly challenges the Türkiye-Saudi Arabia-Qatar bloc supporting Somali sovereignty. Türkiye’s direct military backing of Mogadishu—including strengthening its federal army—is a source of frustration for the coalition, and increasingly Somalia's for political opposition.

From The New Humanitarian, Sept. 18

The "Berbera axis" has also been dubbed the "axis of revisionists."