Breakaway Somaliland is pulling out the stops [17] to win US recognition, offering access to its strategic Berbera port, mineral deals, and even a Trump Tower. Recognition may not immediately be in the cards [18], but Berbera is particularly significant at the moment. It sits close to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait [27], the global shipping lane that Yemen's Houthis can potentially close at will [19]. Somaliland is juicing its proposal with the prospect of a base for US forces (there have already been US military visits [20]), and potentially for Israel [21]—the only country to recognize its independence. The conservative Hudson Institute [22], among [23]other voices in the US political establishment [23], is pushing Somaliland's case [24]as a "bulwark [24]" against the Houthis—and even Chinese influence [25].
Meanwhile, the so-called "Berbera axis [28]" has redefined Red Sea competition over Africa's coastline [29], accelerating regional fragmentation [30]. The four-party coalition of Somaliland, Israel, Ethiopia and the UAE directly challenges the Türkiye-Saudi Arabia-Qatar bloc supporting Somali sovereignty. Türkiye's direct military backing [31] of Mogadishu—including strengthening its federal army—is a source of frustration [32] for the coalition, and increasingly for Somalia's political opposition [33].
From The New Humanitarian [34], Sept. 18
The "Berbera axis" has also been dubbed the "axis of revisionists [35]."
