South Sudanese troops have deployed around the house of Vice President Riek Machar and arrested officials from his SPLA-IO party, marking one of the most serious threats yet to the peace deal that Machar's group signed with President Salva Kiir in 2018. The arrests follow reports of clashes in northeastern Upper Nile state between the national army and the ethnic Nuer militia known as the White Army, which was allied to Marchar during the 2013-2018 civil war. Machar's spokesperson said they do not know why their officials have been detained, but the information minister accused them of collaborating with the White Army. The International Crisis Group’s senior analyst on South Sudan told Reuters that a delicate balance of power among political elites is now "at risk of collapsing," while the UN and regional bodies warned of "widespread violence" in Upper Nile. Tensions have been mounting since the government's decision last year to postpone long-overdue elections, a delay that critics called a failure to implement the 2018 agreement—which has itself been blamed for fuelling instability. Commanders and politicians compete for power in a transitional government based in the capital, Juba, by fighting local wars in the peripheries.

A UN report released on March 5 found that armed groups operating in the Haut Oubangui region of the Central African Republic (CAR) have been carrying out attacks against Muslim communities and Sudanese refugees, resulting in grave human rights violations. The report, prepared jointly by the UN Human Rights Office and the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), mainly attributes these attacks to Wagner Ti Azande (WTA), a militia affiliated with the national army.

The Malian Armed Forces command has refuted accusations that soldiers were responsible for an attack that took place on Feb. 17, in which 24 civilians including women and children were killed. The armed forces denied any involvement in the massacre, which is said to have occurred in Tilemsi commune, Gao region. Press reports indicate a caravan of vehicles carrying migrants across the desert was targeted in the attack, which was carried out jointly with Russian mercenaries.

Human Rights Watch (HRW) reported Jan. 17 that the European Union's insufficient action regarding Rwanda's support of the M23 rebels has exacerbated the violence and atrocities in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

On Feb. 13, the European Parliament adopted a resolution urging the EU to freeze direct budget support to Rwanda until it ceases backing the Tutsi-led M23 rebels and permits humanitarian access in rebel-held territory of the DRC. The resolution also recommended suspending agreements related to Rwandan strategic minerals until Rwanda halts its interference in Congo. However, this resolution is non-binding, and the European Commission has not enforced these recommendations.

The Sudanese army appears close to retaking the capital city Khartoum from the paramilitary-turned-rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF) as momentum continues to swing in its favor following nearly two years of conflict. Reports suggest the army has been advancing on multiple fronts, having broken a bruising siege on its Khartoum headquarters last month. It has also won back significant territory in other parts of central Sudan, including Gezira state. Military control, however, has come at a significant cost, with the UN reporting that soldiers and allied militia have been carrying out summary executions of civilians they accuse of being RSF collaborators. Workers in self-organized "mutual aid" groups—the backbone of the humanitarian response in Sudan—have also been targeted in the reprisals.

US fighter jets launched from the USS Harry Truman in the Red Sea on Feb. 2 struck a hidden base of the local ISIS franchise in the interior mountains of Somalia's northern autonomous enclave of Puntland. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the "initial assessment is that multiple operatives were killed" in these first US air-strikes under the new Trump presidency. The strikes were carried out with the cooperation of the governments of both Puntland and Somalia, whose President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud expressed his "deepest gratitude." The Puntland Dervish Forces have for some five years been fighting the self-declared "Islamic State Somalia" in the enclave's Cal Miskaad mountains. (AFP, Garowe Online, Garowe Online, Hiiraan Online, LWG)

Dubbed "Sahelexit," the decision by Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger to leave the West African regional community known as ECOWAS is now official. The three members of the newly formed Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—sanctioned over coups that overturned their elected governments—are out. It leaves the 12 other countries in ECOWAS, one of Africa's most economically integrated blocs, rethinking the organization's relevance. Like ECOWAS, the new group will allow free movement between their shared territories—now derisively referred to as the "coup belt." But it is in the field of security cooperation that the AES states will be especially missed. Jihadist insurgents are on the march. So-called "Islamic State" forces have set up in northwest Nigeria, where they are known as Lakurawa. With neighboring Niger now pulling out of a regional Multilateral Joint Task Force, there are fears that countering the threat will be all the harder.

In a dramatic escalation of the ongoing conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the M23 rebels on Jan. 26 seized Goma, the capital of North Kivu province on the Rwandan border. The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting to discuss the situation, with the DRC accusing Rwanda of sending hundreds of troops across the border to support the M23. The DRC is caling for an arms embargo on Rwanda, and sanctions on its mineral exports.