Uncertain ceasefire in Iran
After five weeks of war, the US and Iran on April 8 agreed to a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan. Its basic details, however, and to what extent it will be implemented, are surrounded by uncertainty. A main sticking point is the question of whether Lebanon was included in the deal. Iranian and Pakistani officials are insisting it was, but the US and Israel say that it wasn't. Meanwhile, Israel has continued to carry out devastating attacks on Beirut and other parts of Lebanon.
The shaky ceasefire is based on a 10-point plan to end the war sent by Iran to Washington in the final hours before a deadline set by US President Donald Trump. If Iran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Trump threatened on April 7 that a "whole civilization will die tonight." Since the ceasefire began, some vessels have begun to trickle through the strait, but Iran is maintaining its chokehold on passage. The fate of the ceasefire could be decided in the coming days as US and Iranian officials head to Pakistan's capital, Islamabad, for peace talks.
Israel's position on the question of whether Lebanon was part of the US-Iran ceasefire was made painfully clear on April 8, as Israel unleashed a massive series of attacks on Beirut and throughout the country. Many of the strikes targeted densely-populated civilian neighborhoods, killing at least 303 people, by the latest count. Hospitals now struggling to deal with the influx of casualties were already working on power supplied by emergency generators, with supplies dwindling.
On April 9, Israel issued an evacuation order for the Beirut neighbourhood of Jnah, which includes two hospitals, Rafik Hariri University Hospital and al-Zahraa, that are treating the injured. WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has said there is nowhere to evacuate patients to, and urged Israel to reverse the order. While various aid groups and leaders urge for the inclusion of Lebanon in the truce, and issue conflicting statements, Lebanese civilians are once again left to wait, search for survivors, and mourn the dead.
From The New Humanitarian, April 10
Russia, China block UN resolution on Strait of Hormuz
China and Russia on April 7 vetoed a UN Security Council resolution aimed at allowing the free passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing conflict in the region.
Both China and Russia rejected the resolution for similar reasons. Russian Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia claimed that the resolution wrongly pointed at Iranian actions as the only source of the conflict, disregarding the illegal attacks committed by Israel and the US. Chinese Ambassador Fu Cong presented a like argument, stating that the resolution "failed to capture the root causes and the full picture of the conflict in a comprehensive and balanced manner."
The US Ambassador Mike Waltz strongly condemned the vetoes, claiming that China and Russia "sided with a regime that seeks to intimidate the Gulf into submission, even as it brutalizes its own people during a national internet blackout for daring to imagine dignity or freedom." Waltz also raised several global issues connected with the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz:
The resolution was proposed by Bahrain, which currently holds the Council’s presidency, together with Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. (Jurist)
Russia and China last month abstained from a similar resolution.
Lebanon ceasefire takes effect
A 10-day ceasefire came into effect at midnight local time on April 16 in Lebanon, after Israeli and Lebanese officials held their first direct talks in decades. Despite ongoing uncertainty about who had agreed what, both Israel and Hezbollah appeared to be adhering to it, and some of the one million people forcibly displaced over the seven weeks of hostilities have begun to head home.
Iran's foreign minister said the Strait of Hormuz will now remain open to all commercial traffic for the duration of the Lebanon/Israel ceasefire, while his deputy insisted Iran was seeking an overarching end to war across the region. President Donald Trump said the US naval blockade of Iran will remain in place until a deal is reached. (TNH)
Another uncertain ceasefire in Iran
A planned second round of talks between Iran and the United States never materialized in Pakistan, even as the capital, Islamabad, remained under an intense security lockdown. Shortly before a previous ceasefire was slated to end on April 21, US President Donald Trump announced an extension, crediting Pakistan's prime minister and army chief. However, Washington's decision to continue a blockade of Iranian ports around the Strait of Hormuz has led Tehran to declare that reopening the passage would not be “possible” so long as ships continue to face threat of attack.
On April 24, Trump also announced that Israel and Lebanon would extend their ceasefire for another three weeks. These shaky extensions come as Tehran says nearly 3,500 people have been killed in Iran. A further 2,200 have been killed in Lebanon, including Amal Khalil, a 43-year-old female journalist killed in a reported Israeli "double-tap" strike after previously saying she had received death threats from an Israeli phone number. Colleagues said rescuers were obstructed for hours while trying to reach her. Lebanon's prime minister condemned the attack as a "war crime." Israel said the strike targeted Hezbollah-linked vehicles and was under review. (TNH)
Threats as Iran talks break down again
US President Donald Trump once again threatened to launch decisive attacks on Iran after a second round of ceasefire talks in Islamabad failed to materialize, despite representatives from the Islamic Republic travelling to Pakistan for the discussions. The Iranians responded by warning that they would launch "long and painful attacks" on US targets, presumably in the Gulf region, if Washington did indeed renew military action. (TNH)
Israel-Lebanon talks resume, as bombing continues
Israel and Lebanon sat down for a new round of US-mediated talks at the end of this week, as Israel scaled up its bombing—one month into a soon-to-expire Israel-Hezbollah truce that many have called a ceasefire in name only. Israel has reportedly killed nearly 600 people in Lebanon in the month since the ceasefire came into force, including civilians, children, and healthcare workers. Air-strikes killed 22 people on May 13 alone, and Israel continues to issue mass evacuation orders with more than a million people still displaced, unable to return to homes that have been destroyed, are occupied by Israeli forces, or are just not safe to live in. Diplomats hope this week's talks will lead to higher-level negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, although the eventual outcome is likely to be related, at least in some part, to the stalled US-Iran talks, with US President Donald Trump saying that he’s losing patience with Iran. (TNH)
Supposed Lebanon 'ceasefire' extended
Representatives of Lebanon and Israel have agreed in US-back talks to extend an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire by 45 days. While the truce has been in place since mid-April, clashes and Israeli bombings have continued, with Israeli air-strikes killing a reported 21 people in south Lebanon on May 21 alone. (TNH)
US and Iran edge closer to deal?
The US and Iran reportedly reached a tentative ceasefire agreement on May 28, with a draft deal extending their truce for 60 days and re-opening unrestricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. But Vice President JD Vance later said that negotiators were still working through sticking points. The reported working agreement, which Iran has downplayed, would require the US to lift its blockade of Iranian ports and ease some sanctions on Iranian oil sales, leaving the issue of Iran's nuclear program for future negotiations.
The talks follow renewed hostilities: US forces said they shot down five Iranian drones and struck a control station in Iran's southern port city of Bandar Abbas on May 25, while Kuwait intercepted Iranian missiles and drones fired toward its territory. Meanwhile, the US imposed new sanctions on Iran's military oil trade, and it is ultimately down to President Donald Trump on whether or not to sign off on a final deal. (TNH)
Israel pounds Lebanon despite ceasefire
While officials from Israel and Lebanon readied to meet at the Pentagon on May 29, Israel stepped up its deadly bombing campaign and issued new mass evacuation orders across south Lebanon. Orders for people to leave the southern city of Tyre and its surroundings came only two hours before a statement from the Israeli army that it was attacking a Hezbollah headquarters in the area. The ramping up of displacement and hostilities from both sides is hitting Lebanese civilians hard: the number of people displaced is officially at over one million, a number that rises with each new order. Thirty-one people were reportedly killed in Lebanon on May 26 alone, including 14 people in one Israeli air-strike near Tyre. The UN recorded eight incidents that targeted healthcare facilities between May 21 and 25; Israeli attacks reportedly killed six paramedics in the span of 24 hours.
All of this is during a supposed ceasefire, which officials agreed to extend on May 15. With attention focused on the US and Iran, people in Lebanon are left wondering what happened to their truce, and if it will ever be effectively implemented on the ground. (TNH)
US House passes resolution to end conflict in Iran
A bipartisan majority in the Republican-controlled House on June 3 passed a resolution to end US involvement in the war with Iran, emphasizing the growing distrust and disapproval of the Trump administration’s handling of the conflict. Four Republicans flipped to join Democrats, passing the War Powers Resolution (WPR) by a vote of 215-208.
While it carries dubious legal weight, this marks a significant shift in support for the war in Iran and illustrates a willingness by members of President Donald Trump’s own party to oppose his actions pursuant to the war.
The WPR was initially scheduled for a vote in May but was delayed due to an early recess called by Republican House leaders, which was believed to be taken because they lacked the votes to opposed the resolution.
Representative Gregory Meeks, ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and sponsor of the resolution, emphasized in a press release that the WPR's passage is a "significant bipartisan rebuke" of an "illegal and costly war," stating:
The House now turns to the Republican-led Senate to pass the resolution. Concurrent resolutions must be passed by both chambers and do not require the signature of the president. As such, they have no legally binding effect but carry weight in that they represent the sentiments of both houses. A formal vote in the Senate has not yet been scheduled, but after a similar resolution was pushed in the Senate last month, proponents of the WPR are left with hope that their efforts are gaining traction.
The WPR was passed pursuant to the 1973 War Powers Act, which indicates that the president has 60 days to end a conflict if congressional approval has not been granted, with a 30 day extension period possible. Trump has not sought approval from Congress within the duration of the conflict, which has now continued for over 90 days.
He explained in May that his reasoning for not seeking approval is that the hostilities ended in an indefinite ceasefire with Tehran in April. However, the US has been involved in active fighting in the Middle East despite the supposed ceasefire.
In the midst of criticism by both political parties, Trump lashed back at the four Republicans that voted in support of the WPR, conveying his disapproval in a social media post:
As indicated in a press release, the Pentagon's Office of the Inspector General has now commenced an investigation into "Operation Epic Fury," code-name of the Iran campaign, as it is legally mandated to do for any conflict that exceeds the 60-day limit. (Jurist)