Mozambique's military said last year that more than 90% of Cabo Delgado province had been secured from jihadist insurgents known locally as al-Shabab, yet attacks this year indicate that the conflict is far from over. After seizing a strategic village last month, fighters killed more than 20 soldiers in an attack on Feb. 9. Cases of beheadings, kidnappings, and ambushes are still being reported by conflict monitors, even as the jihadists (who launched their insurgency in 2017) reportedly try to win civilians' hearts and minds.

Violence broke out in Mozambique's capital Maputo on Oct. 28 between security forces and demonstrators protesting the results of nationwide local elections. Confrontations were also reported in the cities of Nampula and Nacala. Police are accused of using disproportionate force, including tear-gas and live bullets, and at least three people have been reported dead, including a 10-year old boy. There have also been reports of injuries and detentions.

El Niño will drive global food aid needs even higher in the coming months, a new analysis warns. The prediction comes as food aid agencies are already making ration cuts amid a budget squeeze. In July, meteorologists declared the onset of El Niño, a periodic climate phenomenon that usually brings drought to large stretches of the globe and wetter weather elsewhere. The analysis by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network says that humanitarian groups must prepare for "high food assistance needs." Another climate phenomenon, the Indian Ocean Dipole, could amplify El Niño's effects—with both compounded by the climate crisis. This September was the hottest ever recorded. "The temperature anomalies are enormous—far bigger than anything we have ever seen in the past," Petteri Taalas, head of the UN's meteorological agency, WMO, said in a press release. ACAPS, the Geneva-based analysis outfit, says Ethiopia, Guatemala, Honduras, Mozambique, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Somalia, and Sudan may be the countries at the highest risk.

Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi has threatened to terminate the mandate of an East African Community military force that deployed to the Democratic Republic of the Congo last year. The force was set up to contain an insurgency by the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group, which has uprooted nearly a million people in the country's east. The EAC claims the rebels have pulled back from occupied areas thanks to their intervention, but Congolese officials say the group remains at large and accuse the EAC of inaction. The regional mission was unpopular from the outset among Congolese, who are mindful of the destructive role neighboring states have played in their country. Yet new military interventions are being prepared, with the Southern African Development Community (which includes South Africa, Angola, Mozambique and Tanzania) announcing plans to deploy troops. The focus on the M23 is, meanwhile, pulling attention away from DRC's other armed groups, some of which are intensifying attacks and expanding their territory.

It's been a year since forces from Rwanda and a southern African regional bloc deployed to Mozambique's northernmost Cabo Delgado province to battle a jihadist insurgency. Yet attacks are rising again, with more people displaced last month (over 60,000) than at any time this year. Foreign troops helped capture major towns from the insurgents—known locally as al-Shabab—allowing some displaced people to return home. But scattered fighters regrouped and are now spreading their attacks to southern parts of the province previously untouched by conflict. The new incursions have led to reports of beheadings and sparked security fears in Pemba, the provincial capital and a hub for aid operations. Humanitarian groups are calling for increased funds, with around 800,000 people uprooted since the start of the insurgency in late 2017. The militants are affiliated to the so-called Islamic State, but a mix of local issues is driving the war. 

Tropical Storm Ana battered three southern African countries this week, killing more than 70 people, washing away houses and infrastructure, and leaving around 350,000 people homeless and without public services. Ana began over Madagascar's eastern Analamanga region on Jan. 24, with wind speeds of up to 100 kmph, causing flooding and landslides that killed more than 40 people and forced 72,000 from their homes. It then made landfall in Mozambique, causing significant damage to the central provinces of Zambezia, Nampula and Tete, and leaving at least 15 people dead. Next hit was Malawi on Jan. 25, where 19 were killed and more than 217,000 people fled their homes. The storm downed power lines and forced the closure of the country's main hydropower plant. That also affected water pumping stations, resulting in water shortages in the main cities of Blantyre, Zomba, Lilongwe and Mzuzu. A new storm, Batsirai, is brewing in the Indian Ocean and may follow a similar path.

Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo are continuing to pursue a joint military offensive launched late last month against the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), a rebel group that is now said to be integrated into the Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP). The ironically named ADF has carried out a string of recent attacks in Uganda, and has for years been terrorizing the DRC's North Kivu province. The Ugandan and DRC militaries say they have captured some 35 fighters and "neutralized" four rebel camps in the province. The campaign has included air raids and artillery strikes. (AfricaNews, Al Jazeera)

In Episode 88 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg revisits his predictions from 20 years ago and from a month ago about what the world would look like on the 20th anniversary of 9-11. The attack, and Dubya Bush's Global War on Terrorism, did not lead to a wave of new attacks within the US, as the jihad has proved more concerned with the struggle within Islam. But this has meant an invisible catastrophe for the Muslim world. The ongoing wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Yemen get at least some international media attention. There are many more nearly forgotten wars and genocides: the serial massacres in Pakistan, the insurgency in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, the Boko Haram war in Nigeria that is now spilling into Cameroon, the mounting massacres in the Sahel nations. Even the insurgency in Somalia, where the US has had a military footprint, wins little coverage—despite the fact that it is spilling into Kenya. The insurgency in Mozambique has now prompted an African-led multinational military intervention. The insurgency on the Philippine island of Mindanao has been met with air-strikes. All waged by entities claiming loyalty to either al-Qaeda or ISIS. The new imperial doctrine appears to be that this violence is acceptable as long as it is not visited upon the West—as now admitted to by the elite global management.