Last month, Kenya's President William Ruto announced that the El Niño climate phenomenon, which has historically brought devastating flooding to the country, would not occur this year, contradicting weeks of warnings from meteorologists. Today, across the country, at least 60 people have died, over 50,000 more have been displaced, and 221 acres of  farmland are under water as heavy rains associated with El Niño lash the region. The impact has been acutely felt in the northeast, where entire towns have been submerged. And it could be even worse in neighboring Somalia, where nearly 1.2 million people have been affected, prompting the country to declare an emergency and the UN's emergency aid coordination body, OCHA, to release $25 million to help it prepare for worse to come. The World Meteorological Organization predicts that this El Niño will last until at least April 2024, and the Food and Agriculture Organization in Somalia is projecting a once-in-a-century magnitude flood event.

A comprehensive US government report released Nov. 21 confirmed that extreme weather linked to climate change is worsening despite drops in US greenhouse gas emissions. The report urges further action to mitigate potentially catastrophic consequences across the country.

Three months after overthrowing the country's elected government, Niger's ruling military junta is continuing to crack down on critical media and peaceful dissent. Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International said in a joint statement that dozens of officials from the ousted administration have been arrested, and called on the authorities to end arbitrary detentions. To try and force the regime to relinquish power, landlocked Niger's southern neighbor Nigeria has shut its border and imposed stringent sanctions through regional bloc ECOWAS—including cutting off electricity supplies and blocking food shipments. The EU is also preparing its own package of measures aimed at individuals involved in the July 26 coup.

El Niño will drive global food aid needs even higher in the coming months, a new analysis warns. The prediction comes as food aid agencies are already making ration cuts amid a budget squeeze. In July, meteorologists declared the onset of El Niño, a periodic climate phenomenon that usually brings drought to large stretches of the globe and wetter weather elsewhere. The analysis by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network says that humanitarian groups must prepare for "high food assistance needs." Another climate phenomenon, the Indian Ocean Dipole, could amplify El Niño's effects—with both compounded by the climate crisis. This September was the hottest ever recorded. "The temperature anomalies are enormous—far bigger than anything we have ever seen in the past," Petteri Taalas, head of the UN's meteorological agency, WMO, said in a press release. ACAPS, the Geneva-based analysis outfit, says Ethiopia, Guatemala, Honduras, Mozambique, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Somalia, and Sudan may be the countries at the highest risk.

The UN Security Council voted Oct. 2 to approve a multi-national armed force led by Kenya to combat the violent gangs that have made Haiti ungovernable—marking the first time in nearly 20 years that foreign forces are to be deployed to the Caribbean nation. The resolution authorizes the Multinational Security Support mission to deploy for one year, with a review after nine months. Drafted by the US and Ecuador, the resolution was approved with 13 votes in favor and two abstentions, from Russia and China. (AP, PRI, Jurist)

Hundreds held a three-day protest campaign ending Sept. 24 in Ghana's capital, Accra, to denounce harsh economic conditions and the "moral decay" of the country's leadership. With placards reading "Ghana deserves better," protesters attempted to march on the seat of government, Golden Jubilee House, but riot police and armored vehicles barred their way. In response, demonstrators sat down in the road, effectively shutting down the area for hours. Over 50 were arrested when police finally cleared the intersection.

In Episode 186 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg examines the coup d'etat in Niger, which now threatens to plunge West Africa into regional war—with potential for escalation involving the Great Powers. Lines are drawn, with the Western-backed ECOWAS demanding the junta cede power, and Russian-backed Mali and Burkina Faso backing the junta up.  Pro-junta demonstrators in Niger's capital, Niamey, wave the Russian flag—probably to express displeasure at US and French neo-colonialism. The Wagner Group, which already has troops in Mali and Burkina Faso, has expressed its support for the junta, and offered fighters to help stabilize the regime. Elements of the tankie pseudo-left in the West are similarly rallying around the junta. Amid this, leaders of the Tuareg resistance in Niger have returned to arms to resist the new regime, and the country's mine workers union is also demanding a return to democratic rule. Listen on SoundCloud or via Patreon.

More than 40 Yemeni civil society organizations released a declaration on July 26 laying out a vision for how to achieve justice and reconciliation post-conflict. They highlight the importance of addressing past human rights violations to prevent future violence and call for accountability and reparations through a gender-equal and victim-centered process. The war, which started in 2014, has led to one of the world's most acute crises, with more than 20 million people requiring humanitarian assistance and 80% of the population facing hunger.