An ambush by local militia on a weapons convoy in central Somalia has been described as the country's "single most serious incident of arms proliferation." The looted weapons included assault rifles, machine guns, and rocket-propelled grenades. The convoy had crossed from Ethiopia on July 15 when it was attacked near the border town of Abudwaq (Galmudug state). The consignment is believed to have been destined for one of the clans in the area that is allied with government forces waging a stalled offensive against the jihadist group al-Shabab. The price of an AK-47 has since dropped by one third on the local market. The weapons are not only likely to fuel inter-clan conflict, but they could also be bought by a resurgent al-Shabab or by bandits in northern Kenya. As al-Shabab wins back territory, it's prioritizing its rural political message, while continuing its campaign of bomb attacks in the capital, Mogadishu. 

There is "credible" evidence that Ethiopian forces committed genocide during the two-year war in northern Tigray region, a new report has concluded. Ethiopia's National Defense Force and its allies—the paramilitary Amhara Special Forces and the Eritrean Defense Forces—are accused of committing "at least four acts" constituting genocide against Tigrayans, including: killing, causing serious bodily or mental harm, deliberately inflicting conditions of life calculated to bring about their destruction, and imposing measures intended to prevent childbirth. The report by the New Lines Institute, a US-based foreign policy think-tank, called for Ethiopia to be referred to the UN's top court, the International Court of Justice.

An investigation published by Reuters on Feb. 23 reveals that a "secret committee" of high-ranking officials in Ethiopia has been overseeing a campaign of extra-judicial killings, illegal detentions and other human rights violations in an effort to eliminate the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) insurgent group. The so-called Koree Nageenyaa (Security Committee in the Oromo language) has ordered "hundreds of arrests" and "dozens of killings" of any persons suspected of involvemtnt with the OLA, as well as a "massacre of 14 shepherds in Oromia in 2021 that the government has previously blamed on OLA fighters." The Koree Nageenyaa is reportedly headed by Prime Minister Abiy's former chief of staff and current president of the Oromia region, Shimelis Abdisa.

Nearly 400 people have died of starvation in Ethiopia's Tigray and Amhara regions in recent months, according to the national ombudsman. It's a rare admission of hunger-related deaths by a federal body—the government normally dismisses famine warnings as "politicking." Despite the lifting in November of a nationwide food aid freeze imposed by USAID and the World Food Program over large-scale government-run food thefts, just 14% of 3.2 million people targeted for food relief in Tigray received rations last month. There have reportedly been technical problems over fitting GPS trackers to food trucks and putting QR codes on ration cards. A lack of money is also an issue: the UN called on donors last month to urgently ramp up funding to avoid a catastrophe in the coming few months in Tigray, Amhara, Afar, Oromia, and southern Ethiopia, where around 4 million people need immediate food aid.

Addis Ababa held talks on military cooperation with Somaliland Jan. 8—a week after announcing a controversial deal on sea access through the self-governing unrecognized republic. The talks began the same day Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud visited Eritrea (Ethiopia's regional rival) seeking support for his harsh opposition to the deal, decried as a step toward recognition of Somaliland's independence. President Mohamud also signed a law Jan. 6 nullifying the New Year's Day memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the governments of Ethiopia and Somaliland, which grants the landlocked regional power a corridor to Somaliland's port of Berbera. The Somaliland government, based in Hargeisa, claims full sovereignty, and does not recognize Mogadishu's jurisdiction over the territory. (TNH, BBC News, Jurist)

Meta has tweaked the Facebook algorithm to sideline links to news articles and boost "memes"—precisely the format most subject to the fabrications and distortions being aggressively peddled by both sides (yes) in the Gaza conflict. Such propaganda has already been implicated in genocide in Burma and Ethiopia. But even apart from such egregious abuses, memes are dumbing down discourse and entrenching groupthink and dogmatism—and are being pushed by Meta as part of its sinister corporate design to enclose the internet. In Episode 207 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg calls for a total moratorium on posting or sharing memes as a means of pressure on Meta to re-emphasize actual news articles, and deep-six the war propaganda.

El Niño will drive global food aid needs even higher in the coming months, a new analysis warns. The prediction comes as food aid agencies are already making ration cuts amid a budget squeeze. In July, meteorologists declared the onset of El Niño, a periodic climate phenomenon that usually brings drought to large stretches of the globe and wetter weather elsewhere. The analysis by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network says that humanitarian groups must prepare for "high food assistance needs." Another climate phenomenon, the Indian Ocean Dipole, could amplify El Niño's effects—with both compounded by the climate crisis. This September was the hottest ever recorded. "The temperature anomalies are enormous—far bigger than anything we have ever seen in the past," Petteri Taalas, head of the UN's meteorological agency, WMO, said in a press release. ACAPS, the Geneva-based analysis outfit, says Ethiopia, Guatemala, Honduras, Mozambique, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Somalia, and Sudan may be the countries at the highest risk.

Saudi Arabian border guards have killed hundreds of Ethiopian migrants and asylum-seekers attempting to cross the border from Yemen, according to an Aug. 21 report from Human Rights Watch (HRW). The report documented incidents between March 2022 and June 2023, based on interviews with migrants, satellite imagery, and social media posts. According to the report, Saudi border guards used explosive weapons such as mortars against migrants, and shot them at close range with live ammunition. Saudi border guards reportedly fired on people even when they complied with orders. HRW called the recent pattern of killings a change from "an apparent practice of occasional shootings" to "widespread and systematic killings."