Africa Theater
Guinea: violence mounts ahead of election
Weeks ahead of elections in Guinea, where Alpha Condé is running for a controversial third presidential term, Amnesty International has released a report documenting harsh repression of the political opposition by his security forces. The crackdown on protests has resulted in the deaths of at least 50 people in less than a year, Amnesty said in the report issued Oct. 1. Between October 2019 and February 2020 alone, more than 30 people were killed in protests against a constitutional change allowing Condé to seek a third term. Of these, 11 were shot and killed by bullets to the head, chest or abdomen. March 22, 2020, the day of the referendum on the constitutional change, was particularly deadly, with at least 12 demonstrators killed, nine of them by gunfire. The opposition boycotted the vote, but demonstrations against the referendum were banned by decree.
Solidarity with striking Sudan sugar workers
Over a thousand workers at Kenana Sugar Company in Sudan are starting their second month on strike to demand basic trade union rights, increased wages to offset the spiralling cost of living, the removal of figures associated with the old regime from company management, and the reinstatement of 34 workers sacked for taking part in the uprising against dictator Omar el-Bashir last year. Other demands raised by the strikers include renovating the workers' canteen, improvements to health services in the company town, and investment in education for workers' children.
Ethiopia: Oromo leaders charged with 'terrorism'
Ethiopia's attorney general filed charges on Sept. 19 against 24 activists for alleged terrorism and incitement to violence. Jawar Mohammed and Bekele Gerba, two leading opposition politicians of the Oromo Federalist Congress, were among those charged. Despite being the largest ethnic group in Ethiopia, the Oromo have historically faced political and economic marginalization. Jawar and Gerba actively oppose the Ethiopian government and have called for the federal state to give "self-rule" to Oromos and other ethnic groups in regions where those groups constitute the majority of the population.
Tigray region defies Ethiopia election postponement
Elections to fill the 190 seats in the regional parliament were held Sept. 9 in Ethiopia's restive northern region of Tigray—in defiance of a federal government order suspending all polls. Elections in Ethiopia's nine regions had been scheduled for August, but indefinitely postponed in March due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The central government in Addis Ababa is refusing to recognize the election. Authorities barred journalists from travelling to Tigray to cover the election, with security officers even removing several reporters from a plane bound for the regional capital, Mekele.
Trump wades into Egypt-Ethiopia fight over Nile
Reportedly at the direct instigation of President Donald Trump, the US State Department has ordered a suspension of aid to Ethiopia over its move to begin capturing water behind a controversial new mega-dam on the Blue Nile that has been opposed by Egypt and Sudan. A State Department spokesperson said the decision to "temporarily pause" some aid to Addis Ababa "reflects our concern about Ethiopia's unilateral decision to begin to fill the dam before an agreement and all necessary dam safety measures were in place." The statement said the decision was taken by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo "based on guidance from the president." The freeze could affect as much as $100 million in aid. The reservoir behind the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) began filling in July, over the protests of Egypt and Sudan. (Al Jazeera, Sept. 3; AP, Sept. 2)
Moment of truth for Sudan peace process
Sudan’s power-sharing government reached a peace deal with an alliance of rebel groups this week, sparking hopes of an end to decades of conflict in the country. The agreement will see rebels given government posts, power devolved to local regions, and displaced people offered a chance to return home. Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok dedicated the deal—one of his main priorities following the ousting of Omar al-Bashir 14 months ago—to children born in refugee camps, while the UN commended an "historic achievement." But there are reasons to be cautious. Two of Sudan's main armed groups in Darfur and the southern states of Blue Nile and South Kordofan refused to sign. Abdul Wahid, leader of a faction of the holdout Sudan Liberation Movement, said the deal was "business as usual" and unlikely to address root causes of conflict. With Sudan's economy in freefall, it's also unclear how the transitional government will be able to afford the hundreds of millions of dollars needed to make it workable. Previous agreements in 2006 and 2011 came to little. However, with al-Bashir now out of the picture—perhaps soon facing the ICC—things could be different this time around. With violence rising in Darfur and in other parts of the country, there's a lot riding on it.
Mauritians take to street over oil spill
Thousands of people demonstrated in Mauritius on Aug. 29 over the government's handling of a recent shipwreck that spilled 1,000 tons of oil into the seas around the island nation. In what appears to be the latest toll in the incident, dolphins and whales have beached close to where the Japanese-owned MV Wakashio freighter ran aground and broke up. Thirty-nine of the mammals have beached in the week leading up to Aug. 28. Social media is awash with photos of the stranded animals, including mothers and calves. At a press conference Sudheer Maudhoo, the Mauritian minister of fisheries and marine resources, called the beachings a "sad coincidence." Though a link between the deaths and oil contamination has yet to be established, disaffection has swelled in the aftermath of the spill. Protesters in the streets of the capital, Port Louis, wielded an inflatable dolphin with "INACTION" written on it.
Flooding, fighting threaten South Sudan 'catastrophe'
President Salva Kiir declared a state of emergency Aug. 13 in South Sudan's central Jonglei and Pibor regions following flooding and communal violence. More than 200,000 people have been forced from their homes as water levels rose by 1.5 meters in some areas after heavy rains. Flooding has also affected neighboring Upper Nile and Unity states. The government has called on humanitarian agencies to provide immediate aid, but inter-communal unrest in Jonglei and Pibor—in which aid workers have been killed—will complicate operations. The conflict between Lou Nuer and Murle ethnic militias has displaced 100,000 people since the beginning of the year. They will miss the current planting season—deepening their food insecurity. Pre-positioned food stocks were also looted in the violence. South Sudan is in the lean period before the November harvest, and "emergency" levels of food need are widespread. The US-funded Famine Early Warning System Network is anticipating their highest "catastrophe" level in some areas of Jonglei affected by fighting, and says "urgent and sustained food assistance" will be needed even after the harvest.

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