The World Food Programme (WFP) warned March 17 that the escalating hostilities in the Middle East could lead to record levels of food insecurity, and the largest disruption in the world economy and humanitarian efforts since the COVID-19 pandemic.

WFP deputy executive director and chief operating officer Carl Skau said: "If this conflict continues, it will send shockwaves across the globe, and families who already cannot afford their next meal will be hit the hardest." Skau urged the international community to support an adequately funded humanitarian response.

Since the United States and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran in late February, the conflict has spread to encompass much of the region, causing thousands of civilian casualties and forcibly displacing over 3 million people. The WFP predicts 45 million people may slide into acute hunger (known as IPC3+) if the conflict continues. Due to the heavy reliance of food and aid distribution on energy, the skyrocketing price of oil has placed heightened strain on already vulnerable aid supply lines. Further economic destabilization from the conflict places the region at even greater risk.

Import-reliant countries, predominantly in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, face the greatest risk, as humanitarian organizations are spread even thinner. This is compounded by tightening budgets, as well as the proliferation and exacerbation of global crises. Global funding for foreign aid has also shrunk exponentially in recent years, with a sharp decline following President Trump's signing of Executive Order 14169, which effectively suspended large portions of USAID. Together, these place extraordinary pressure on humanitarian organizations, leaving millions at risk of famine. Sudan and Somalia were named as particularly vulnerable.

Last week, the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights published a report on the devastating impacts hostilities have had on civilian populations. "The strikes against vital civilian infrastructure in the Middle East—as well as the widening geographic spread of strikes—are further increasing risks for populations across the region, and beyond," Human Rights Chief Volker Türk said.

From JURIST, March 19. Used with permission.

Note: Hunger in the Global South has already been exacerbated by Trump's trade tariffs regime, while spikes in the price of oil and grain since the start of the Ukraine war in 2022 have contributed to popular privation and unrest worldwide.