In a decisive referendum held on Nov. 16, Ecuadoran citizens overwhelmingly rejected a constitutional amendment that would have allowed foreign military bases on the country's soil. Early counts show nearly two-thirds of ballots cast opposed the measure. President Daniel Noboa introduced the referendum, arguing that foreign cooperation, such as hosting bases for allied nations, was essential to combat the ongoing surge in violence related to drug-trafficking.

The rejection represents a significant setback for Noboa and his broader security agenda, revealing public scepticism of solutions involving foreign military forces. It also raises questions about how Ecuador will confront organized crime without resorting to foreign military and intelligence assistance.

Ecuador has in recent years become a major transit route for cocaine moving from Colombia and Peru, and criminal organizations have expanded their control by extorting local communities and carrying out attacks on journalists and politicians as they compete for territory.

Noboa framed the measure as a practical tool to enhance security capacity, but opponents argued that hosting foreign military bases could undermine Ecuador's sovereignty, citing past experiences with foreign forces that have generated mistrust among local populations.

For US policy in the region, the referendum complicates efforts to deepen military-security cooperation with Ecuador. Washington had sought to re-establish access to a former US base at Eloy Alfaro near Manta on Ecuador's Pacific coast, used from 1999 to 2009 for counter-narcotics operations. However, Ecuador's constitutional ban on foreign bases, adopted in 2008, remained in force.

At the same time, however, the urgency of Ecuador's security crisis cannot be overstated. The country’s homicide rate is projected to reach 50 per 100,000 people this year, the highest in Latin America. Gangs operating in port cities and along coastal routes work with transnational criminal networks and exert powerful influence over local institutions.

Ecuador now faces the critical tasks of bolstering domestic security capacity, regional cooperation on closing drug-trafficking routes, and instating institutional reform. The referendum’s result marks both a political rebuke and a call for more domestically rooted security policies.

From JURIST, Nov. 17. Used with permission. Internal links added.

Note: The referendum included four questions: allowing foreign bases, barring state financing for political parties, reducing the number of seats in the National Assembly, and (most significantly) calling a Constituent Assembly a draft new constitution. All four were rejected. (InfoBae)

Opponents of the measures charged that the government was waging a campaign of intimidation against them, with at least 60 social leaders and organizations having their bank accounts frozen pending an apparently politically motivated corruption investigation by the public prosecutors office. Among those under scrutiny is the environmentalist Pachamama Foundation, which released a statement saying: "We categorically reject the criminalization process that has been initiated." (The Guardian)

The Pachamama Foundation was ordered closed by President Rafael Correa in 2013, but was allowed to re-open under President Lenin Moreno in 2017.