The rising wave of far-right populism has arrived in Chile. Jose Antonio Kast, a 59-year old ultra-conservative who campaigned on fighting crime and carrying out mass deportations, defeated left-wing candidate Jeanette Jara by about 16 points. His victory marks the country's furthest shift to the right since the restoration of democracy after the brutal dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet 30 years ago—an era and figure Kast has openly admired.

Kast's success largely stemmed from his ability to fuse the electorate's top two concerns: crime and migration. Though Chile remains one of the safest countries in Latin America, transnational criminal groups have played a role in a slight uptick in violent crime that, though far less extreme than perceived, has captured public attention. Venezuela's Tren de Aragua has taken advantage of the country's porous northern border to traffic drugs and weapons that have been linked to a series of high profile crimes, contributing to a backlash against migrants—especially Venezuelans—even though they are often among the primary victims of this violence. Kast has exploited these anxieties, painting a dark picture of a country where "criminals are free and citizens are living as if in a prison," blaming migrants in sweeping terms, calling for walls and electric fences on the border with Peru, and vowing to begin mass deportations.

Kast's ascent will affect far more than security and migration. A devout Catholic and father of nine, he opposes abortion, same-sex marriage, and what he calls "gender ideology." A fan of neoliberal economic policies, he has promised sweeping spending cuts. Most troubling for Chilean progressives, however, is his open admiration for former dictator Augusto Pinochet. Writing for the New York Times, Ariel Dorfman argues that Kast's support for Pinochet makes the country's turn towards "nativist authoritarianism" unique in the post-dictatorship era. For Dorfman, his willingness to release former military officials convicted of heinous crimes and his nostalgia for a dictatorship that claimed thousands of lives constitute a "political and ethical earthquake" in a country where "many considered the long struggle for democracy to have been won."

Xenophobia and fears of crime alone, however, do not explain Kast's victory. Public disappointment with the left was crucial as well. Elected on promises of structural reform after the 2019 popular uprising, left-wing President Gabriel Boric struggled to live up to the immense expectations thrust upon him. A progressive new constitution was voted down, his deployment of the military against Mapuche communities incensed many of his supporters, and economic growth faltered. These issues overshadowed the administration's concrete gains: a more just foreign policy, expanded healthcare access for the poor, protections for gig workers, pension reform, a rise in the minimum wage, and the introduction of a 40-hour work week. As labor minister Jara played a key role in many of these accomplishments, but it was not enough to overcome the malaise and disillusionment that shaped the election.

Kast will not assume power until March, but the shockwaves are already being felt across the region. Following in the footsteps of other Latin American conservatives, his administration is expected to align closely with US foreign policy imperatives. During a visit to Argentina, he promised to support "any situation" aimed at removing Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, whom he called a "narco-dictator." Kast's victory prompted various reactions from the region's progressive leaders. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva offered muted congratulations, while Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum denounced Pinochet's legacy and called his victory a "moment of reflection" for progressives, and Colombia's Gustavo Petro vowed to never "shake hands with a Nazi."

From NACLA Update, Dec. 19. Slightly edited. Internal links added.