The Sudanese army appears close to retaking the capital city Khartoum from the paramilitary-turned-rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF) as momentum continues to swing in its favor following nearly two years of conflict. Reports suggest the army has been advancing on multiple fronts, having broken a bruising siege on its Khartoum headquarters last month. It has also won back significant territory in other parts of central Sudan, including Gezira state. Military control, however, has come at a significant cost, with the UN reporting that soldiers and allied militia have been carrying out summary executions of civilians they accuse of being RSF collaborators. Workers in self-organized "mutual aid" groups—the backbone of the humanitarian response in Sudan—have also been targeted in the reprisals.

Dubbed "Sahelexit," the decision by Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger to leave the West African regional community known as ECOWAS is now official. The three members of the newly formed Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—sanctioned over coups that overturned their elected governments—are out. It leaves the 12 other countries in ECOWAS, one of Africa's most economically integrated blocs, rethinking the organization's relevance. Like ECOWAS, the new group will allow free movement between their shared territories—now derisively referred to as the "coup belt." But it is in the field of security cooperation that the AES states will be especially missed. Jihadist insurgents are on the march. So-called "Islamic State" forces have set up in northwest Nigeria, where they are known as Lakurawa. With neighboring Niger now pulling out of a regional Multilateral Joint Task Force, there are fears that countering the threat will be all the harder.

President Trump has ordered the construction of a 30,000-bed facility to hold migrants at the notorious US naval facility at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, as part of his mass deportation campaign. The US base has been used to house terrorism suspects since 2002, becoming synonymous with torture and unlawful imprisonment. The US has secretively detained refugees and migrants intercepted at sea at Guantánamo Bay for decades, but the facility has not previously been used for people apprehended on US soil or at this scale.

During his first days back in office, Donald Trump rapidly started implementing his hardline migration agenda, including by declaring a state of emergency at the US southern border. The move allows his administration to access billions of dollars to expand the building of a border wall and to deploy the military and national guard to the area. Around 1,500 active duty soldiers are already being deployed. Trump also reinstated the controversial "Remain in Mexico" program from his first administration. This policy, which requires people to wait for asylum appointments in Mexico, helped to create a now-perennial humanitarian crisis in northern Mexico. The Trump administration has also shut down CBP One—a cell phone app for scheduling asylum appointments—leaving thousands of people stranded in Mexico, and suspended the US refugee resettlement program, as well as cancelling travel plans for refugees who had already been approved to enter the country. Trump's promised mass deportation of millions of undocumented people has yet to get underway, but his administration has begun laying the groundwork for expanded immigration raids—potentially including on schools, churches, and hospitals—and has threatened to prosecute any local officials who don't comply.

With the sounds of war starting to fall silent in the Gaza Strip after 470 days of brutal Israeli military assault and siege, a tiny crack of hope has opened for the Palestinian residents of the enclave that they will be able to gather the shattered pieces of their lives and begin the daunting task of rebuilding. But whether the deal reached by Israel and Hamas on Jan. 15 will lead to a decisive end to the war remains entirely unclear.

The M23 armed group is continuing to pursue expansionist objectives across eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, according to a report by UN experts. The report underscores the failure of the ceasefire deals and peace talks held between DRC and Rwanda (which supports the rebels) under the aegis of Angola. It argues that the M23 plans the long-term occupation and exploitation of conquered territories, where it has been setting up parallel administrations and recruiting thousands of new members, including children. It states that the group has been consolidating support from other armed movements in Ituri, South Kivu and North Kivu provinces, forging non-aggression pacts and building new proxy forces. The rebels are also making a large profit from taxing mineral production, especially at the Rubaya mining sites in North Kivu, one of the world's largest sources of coltan. The minerals are being "fraudulently exported" to Rwanda in what amounts to the "largest contamination" of mineral supply chains recorded in the region to date.

A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah appears to be holding, with the US/France-brokered deal that came into effect Nov. 27 prompting thousands of displaced Lebanese civilians to head for their homes in the south. While there were celebrations on the road, so many homes, businesses and lives have been destroyed that the return is also marred by sorrow—with bodies still under the rubble of buildings flattened by Israel's bombs. The days before the deal were particularly devastating, with Israel levelling an apartment block in central Beirut, reportedly killing at least 29 people. Both sides have traded accusations of violating the truce, which is based on the UN Security Council resolution that ended the 2006 Hezbollah-Israel war. The next 60 days, during which both Hezbollah and Israel are set to withdraw from south Lebanon, will be crucial. While US President Joe Biden hopes to use this momentum to push for a deal in Gaza, no clear progress has been made on that front—meaning there is still no respite for civilians there. Israel is intensifying its bombardment in central Gaza, where medics say its military killed at least 26 people on the day after the Lebanon deal began, and aid—already mostly blockaded by Israel—is reportedly now being looted on a large scale with impunity.

The state of Manipur in remote northeastern India has again erupted in protest, after the bodies of six women and children from the majority Meitei community were recovered. Meitei leaders say the victims were kidnapped and murdered by members of the Kuki minority. The demonstrations, which saw protesters torch the homes and offices of government officials, have led to the arrests of several people. A proposed change to land-tenure law in the state in favor of the Meitei last summer set off months of protests, violence, and a communications shutdown.