Will US-Cuba deal survive Trump?

Outgoing President Joe Biden informed Congress Jan. 14 that he would lift the US designation of Cuba as a State Sponsor of Terrorism (SSOT), as part of a deal facilitated by the Catholic Church to free political prisoners on the island. The followiing day, the Cuban government announced it would release 553 prisoners who had been jailed for "diverse crimes." The agreement also eases some economic pressures on Cuba, including lifting sanctions on companies run by the Cuban military and the suspension of a legal provision that had enabled Cuban Americans to sue the Cuban government for confiscated property. The Cuban government responded by saying that the United States was taking "steps in the right direction" but emphasized that "the economic war remains."

Cuba's designation as a state sponsor of terrorism has been widely condemned by activists around the world. Trump reinstated the terrorist designation in January 2021 in the final days of his first term, after it had been reversed under the Obama administration. Biden then upheld Cuba’s inclusion on the SSOT list despite promises to review the policy. Six months into his term, Biden announced new sanctions against the island.

The deal lifts a huge burden off of the Cuban people. Cuba's SSOT status produced a chilling effect in which banks and financial institutions were hesitant to engage with the island, created obstacles to delivering humanitarian aid, and prohibited US universities from collaborating with Cuban writers, artists, academics, and journalists. As a result of these policies Cuba has lost a staggering 10% of its population in the last few years.

The Cuban government responded to the move by thanking the international community for its solidarity and highlighting the need for further action to end the United States' "genocidal and illegal policy of economic asphyxiation against Cuba." The government specifically called out the ongoing targeting of Cuba's fuel supplies, the "cruel and absurd persecution" of its international medical brigades, and restrictions on financial institutions and transactions. According to the Cuban government's own calculations, the ongoing US embargo cost upwards of $5 billion dollars in 2024 alone. The rising human and economic costs of the sanctions led the United Nations to, once again, vote overwhelmingly to condemn the embargo in October 2024.

As part of the agreement, the Cuban government began the "gradual" release of hundreds of prisoners, news that was welcomed by the relatives of jailed protestors. The majority of those to be released took part in the July 2021 anti-government protests that resulted in the arrests of up to 1,000 people. While the government responded to the protests with initial promises of reform, it subsequently passed a penal code that increased restrictions on basic freedoms and initiated a crackdown on Cuba's "critical left" that labelled domestic protesters as "enemies of the revolution," thus damaging the Cuban government's remaining ties to the country’s grassroots social movements.

The durability of Biden's deal was immediately cast into doubt. Just one day after the policy change, Republican Senator Marco Rubio, Trump's pick for Secretary of State, said during his Senate Confirmation hearing that Cuba belongs on the SSOT list. Rubio is widely seen as having a smooth pass to confirmation, especially after drawing bipartisan support at his hearing. He was not the only one to cast doubt on the policy. Upon hearing of the policy change, Mauricio Claver-Carone, Trump's envoy for Latin America and one of the initial architects of the initial SSOT policy, criticized the Biden administration's "love" for "authoritarian anti-American regimes." Trump's pick for national security adviser, Congressman Mike Walz, made clear that "anything that they're doing right now we can do back."

From NACLA Update, Jan. 17

See our last reports on the SSOT designation and the protest wave in Cuba.