Shaky US-Iran ceasefire; escalation in Lebanon
The United States and Iran have signed a Memorandum of Understanding that aims to end the war the US and Israel launched on Iran on Feb. 28. The 14-point agreement, signed by Donald Trump at a June 17 gathering hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron in the Palace of Versailles—where the treaty to end World War I was signed in 1919—opens up the Strait of Hormuz for a 60-day ceasefire window, during which the two sides have vowed to negotiate a long-term resolution to the Iranian nuclear standoff. The US will also terminate all sanctions against Iran, provide $300 billion for post-war reconstruction, and unlock all frozen Iranian funds and assets.
The nearly four months of war killed at least 7,300 people in Iran and Lebanon.
Israel, the other belligerent, has lashed out at Washington over the deal, while continuing to attack Lebanon. The Israeli cabinet's harsh words towards Washington led to a strong rebuke from US Vice President JD Vance. In an initial sign of the still-rocky road ahead, Vance's trip to Switzerland on June 19 for talks on implementing the deal was abruptly cancelled.
Despite—or possibly because of—the signing of the MoU, which is supposed to include an end to fighting in Lebanon, the fighting there has flared again. The Israeli military reportedly killed 18 people in south Lebanon overnight on June 18-19. The rash of air-strikes followed Hezbollah's killing of four Israeli soldiers in a southern Lebanese village, prompting furious statements from politicians such as Israeli's extreme-right interior security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who said "all of Lebanon must burn."
Meanwhile, Amnesty International released a report finding that Israel has dramatically expanded its mass "evacuation" orders as well as "don't come back" orders, which it says "have been used as a deliberate tool to forcibly displace civilians" and prevent many of them from returning home. This, the rights watchdog says, amounts to "unlawful transfer," which is a violation of the Geneva Conventions and a war crime.
From The New Humanitarian, June 19. Lightly edited; internal links added.
US strikes Iran after attack on cargo ship
The US military has conducted strikes on Iranian targets after President Donald Trump accused Iran of a "foolish violation" of the truce. (BBC News)
On June 25, the US and the UK accused Iran of striking a Singapore-flagged commercial vessel with a drone as it was transiting a UN-backed route along the Omani coast. That attack led the International Maritime Organization, a UN agency, to temporarily pause a mission to evacuate more than 11,000 sailors who have been stranded in the Strait. Iran maintains that all vessels must use routes established by them and approved by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The Islamic Republic has proposed a toll for all vessels that would provide $40 billion in annual revenue, which it says should also benefit its Gulf neighbors, who came under weeks of attack from Iran during the war.
In a bid to allay naysayers who say the deal was too soft, Trump, who nearly torpedoed negotiations by threatening Iran with more bombing if it didn't reopen the Strait, has said the $300 million in Iranian assets his administration will unfreeze will be used to purchase American agricultural goods.
Meanwhile, Israel continues to attack Lebanon. On June 25, as talks between Tel Aviv and Beirut were underway in Washington, Israel killed three more Lebanese in its second violation of the ceasefire in as many days. (TNH)
Lebanon-Israel-US Tripartite Agreement
After their fifth round of talks in Washington, Lebanese and Israeli negotiators—along with US mediators—signed a tripartite agreement in a signing ceremony at the State Department on June 26. The first point of the 14-point agreement sates: "Israel and Lebanon affirm each other's right to exist in peace and their mutual desire to live securely as two sovereign neighboring states." It goes on to call for the disarming of Hezbollah and Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon. (This Is Beirut)
700,000 displaced in Lebanon
The Norwegian Refugee Council has warned that—despite multiple ceasefires—around 700,000 people are unable to go back to their homes in Lebanon. Truces have reduced fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, but destroyed homes, a lack of services, access restrictions, unexploded ordnance, and the fact that Israel is still occupying part of south Lebanon are among the factors preventing wide-scale returns. (TNH)
Iran-US ceasefire collapses amid renewed strikes
The 60-day interim ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran is "over," President Donald Trump announced July 8 as exchange of strikes between the two sides resumed. The US said it struck 170 targets in 48 hours, including near a nuclear reactor and around the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said 14 people have been killed since July 7. Over the next two days, Iran attacked US military sites and related targets in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan. Regional mediators, including Qatar and Pakistan, have sought to revive negotiations and prevent further escalation. As of July 10, US officials said there had been no new strikes for several hours, and technical discussions were continuing, despite the ceasefire being suspended. The fresh hostilities coincided with the six-day funeral for Iran’s late supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed within hours of the first attacks by the US and Israel in late February. (TNH)
Latest flare-up threatens cautious Lebanon returns
Some 400,000 people have begun returning to south Lebanon following the latest Israel-Hezbollah truce, but the newest US-Iran flare-up, concerns over the terms of the Israel-Lebanon deal, and ongoing Israel attacks—a drone killed four people, including three women on July 6—continue to prevent any sense of sustained calm. Rights groups have said the framework deal signed between Israeli and Lebanese officials on June 26 appears to prevent victims of international crimes from seeking justice and seems "to acquiesce to the prolonged and indefinite forced displacement of tens of thousands of residents of vast swathes of southern Lebanon occupied by Israeli forces." Among the potential war crimes in months of fighting are three March 2026 Israeli air-strikes that killed 24 civilians. Amnesty International said July 9 that its investigations show that these attacks, which wiped out entire families, violated several tenets of international humanitarian law, including "failing to distinguish between civilians and military objectives." (TNH)
Strait of Hormuz hostilities escalate —again
UN Secretary-General António Guterres on July 12 called upon Iran and the US to "urgently" resume negotiations as hostilities in and around the Strait of Hormuz intensified, warning that further escalation could have devastating consequences for regional and global security.
Guterres said he was "deeply concerned by the serious escalation" and stressed that a return to full-scale hostilities would have "catastrophic consequences" for the people of the region, international peace and security, and the global economy. He also emphasized the need to ensure full freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
On July 11, the US announced that it had struck approximately 140 targets after accusing the Iranian military of attacking a commercial vessel navigating through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) later claimed responsibility for strikes on a US military base in Jordan. Iranian missiles and drones also reportedlytargeted the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman in response to the US attacks.
US Central Command (CENTCOM) said that the IRGC had "blatantly attacked" a Cyprus-flagged container ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz. In response, the IRGC asserted that it had fired only a warning shot at a vessel attempting to use an unauthorized shipping route and subsequently declared the strait closed. The IRGC also condemned what it described as "outside interference from foreign powers," accusing several vessels of attempting to transit the waterway through unauthorized routes.
Separately, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) center reported that crew members aboard a container vessel damaged near the Strait of Hormuz were forced to abandon ship. The agency did not identify the vessel.
The escalating conflict has disrupted maritime traffic through one of the world’s busiest shipping corridors. According to the UN, approximately 6,000 seafarers remain stranded aboard dozens of vessels in the region. The head of the UN International Maritime Organization (IMO) earlier this week urged commercial shipping to avoid transiting the Strait of Hormuz until necessary safety conditions are in place. (Jurist)