Bill Weinberg

Kobani Kurds between Erdogan, ISIS and Assad

Today's good news from Kobani is tempered by some very disturbing news. Medhaj News, citing sources on the ground in the ISIS-besieged town in northern Syria, reports that Kurdish fighters have now captured more than 80% of Kobani, with just two ISIS-held pockets left in the east. This is a dramatic turn-around from just a week ago, when ISIS was in control of some 40% of Kobani. Simultaneously, however, the Syrian opposition network in its electronically coordinated consensus process, agreed to adopt the slogan "Yes to Turkey's Conditions for Intervention"—with the announcement on Facebook actually showing the image of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a glorified pose.

Mexican cartel wars winding down?

Mexican authorities on Oct. 1 claimed another coup against the cartels, announcing the arrest of Héctor Beltran Leyva, last remaining kingpin of the Beltran Leyva Organization—the declining crime machine that once controlled much of the west and central parts of the country. Beltran Leyva was taken into custody by army troops "without a shot fired" as he dined in a seafood restaurant in the tourist town of San Miguel de Allende, Guanajuato state. (LAT, Oct. 1) The capture follows that earlier this year of the Sinaloa Cartel's long-fugitive jefe máximo Joaquin Guzmán Loera AKA "El Chapo"—marking another score for President Enrique Peña Nieto, and his supposed new and more sophisticated policy against the cartels.

Kobani in the balance; Kurdish protests escalate

ISIS militants have captured the headquarters of Kurdish fighters defending the northern Syrian town of Kobani, with the UN's Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura warning that thousands will likely be massacred if the town falls. Massively outgunned Kurdish militia are struggling to prevent ISIS forces from closing off the last escape route for civilians still in the area, prompting an appeal for urgent military aid. US warplanes have intensified air-strikes against ISIS positions at Kobani, but ISIS now controls 40% of the town, according to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. "The capture of the headquarters will allow the jihadists to advance on the border post with Turkey to the north of the town," Observatory director Rami Abdel Rahman told AFP. "If they achieve that, they will have the Kurdish forces inside Kobani completely surrounded."

Will world betray Kobani?

The main Kurdish armed group in Syria on Oct. 3 again called on Kurds across the region to help prevent a massacre in Kobani as ISIS forces closed their ring around the town and pummeled it with artillery fire. The statement issued by the YPG vowed "never ending" resistance to ISIS in its advance on Kobani. "Every street and house will be a grave for them." It urged: "Our call to all the young men and women of Kurdistan...is to come to be part of this resistance." Turkish soldiers meanwhile lined up on the neaby border—but rather than intervening to stop the ISIS advance, used armored vehicles and water cannons to prevent Kurdish PKK fighters from crossing to come to the aid of besieged Kobani. Turkish forces also prevented Kurds fleeing Kobani from crossing into Turkey. Refugees who had managed to escape from ISIS-held territory told reporters at the border the usual tales of torture, beheadings and rape. The sad spectacle came on Eid al-Adha, an important festival day in the Muslim calendar. (The Guardian, Reuters, Oct. 3)

Fortune magazine ranks top five global cartels

Well, this is really cute. With refreshing honesty, Fortune magazine on Sept. 14 issued a list of the "Fortune 5"—the biggest organized crime groups in the world, ranked by their annual revenue estimates. No sources are given, but the Fortune editors presumably relied on international law enforcement intelligence. The results are slightly surprising for those of us who grew up in the era of the Sicilian Mafia and Medellín Cartel. Brave new crime machines have long since eclipsed these entities from the global stage, and far outstripped their earnings from human trafficking, extortion, credit card fraud, prostitution and (above all) drug smuggling. In the number one slot, by a mile, is Yamaguchi Gumi, a wing of Japan's Yakuza, with revenue estimated at $80 billion. A distant second is Russian mafia group Solntsevskaya Bratva, with revenue at $8.5 billion. Three and four are two Italian outfits that have long superceded Sicily's Cosa Nostra: the Camorra, based in Naples, with revenues of $4.9 billion; and the 'Ndrangheta, based in Calabria, with revenues of $4.5 billion. Number five is Mexico's Sinaloa Cartel, with revenues of $3 billion.

ISIS to attack US through Mexico ...Not!

Here we go again. Francis X. Taylor, under-secretary for intelligence and analysis at the Department of Homeland Security, testified before the Senate Committee on Homeland Security on Sept. 10 that operatives of the extremist jihadi movement variously known as ISIS, ISIL or the Islamic State have discussed infiltrating the United States through the Mexican border. "There have been Twitter and social-media exchanges among ISIL adherents across the globe speaking about that as a possibility," Taylor said in response to a question from Sen. John McCain, who wanted to know if any ISIS chatter had been intercepted that "would urge infiltration into the United States across our Southwestern border." But Taylor said he was "satisfied that we have the intelligence and the capability at our border that would prevent that activity." And when pressed further, he admitted: "At present, DHS is unaware of any specific, credible threat to the US homeland from ISIL."

Peru: record coke bust points to Mexican cartels

A record-breaking cocaine bust on Peru's Pacific coast points not only to the country's booming production, but also the increasing role of the Mexican cartels in the Andean narco economy. Peru's Interior Ministry announced the haul in a Sept. 1 statement, saying National Police and DEA agents had uncovered an unprecedented 7.6 metric tons of coke hidden in a shipment of coal at a warehouse in the northern fishing port of Huanchaco, Trujillo region. "This is the largest drug seizure ever in Peru," said Interior Minister Daniel Urresti, speaking at a Lima press conference below a banner reading "Historic Blow to Illegal Drug Trafficking" at the hanger where the shipment had been flown for incineration. "It's historic."

Warlords cut deal on Afghan electoral dispute

Afghanistan's electoral dispute was officially resolved Sept. 21, after months of wrangling. Under the deal, Ashraf Ghani becomes president while runner-up Abdullah Abdullah is to nominate a "chief executive officer" (likely himself) with powers similar to those of prime minister. (BBC News) AP reports that the Obama administration hopes to follow this up with a new secuirty deal that will allow some 10,000 US troops to remain in Afghanistan next year after all "combat forces" are supposedly withdrawn at the end of 2014. The outgoing Hamid Karzai had punted on such an arrangement. The deal may be a win for Washington, but not so much for Afghans. Patricia Gossman blogs for Human Rights Watch:

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