Sudan
Who's arming who in Sudan?
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has denied arming the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces fighting Sudan's army, despite a leaked UN document alleging "credible" evidence. The UN report said arms and ammunition shipments are unloaded each week from cargo planes at an airport in Chad, and handed to the RSF at the Sudanese border. The UAE has also been accused of funnelling weapons through Uganda and the Central African Republic, part of a regional supply network that has allowed the RSF to "punch above its weight" in the nine-month conflict. But the Gulf State—with business and political interests across Africa—said it has taken no side in the war.
'Blood gold,' diamonds behind Russian war effort
Gold-mining operations in Africa under the control of the paramilitary Wagner Group are funneling money to the Kremlin for the Russian war effort in Ukraine, according to a new report by watchdog organizations. "The Blood Gold Report," prepared by the Consumer Choice Center and Democracy 21, finds that Wagner has laundered some $2.5 billion in proceeds from its African operations since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, helping Moscow to ride out international sanctions.
Is Sudan about to split in two?
Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are ousting the army from military bases across the western Darfur region, leading to fears the country will be split in a similar way to neighboring Libya, which is ruled by rival governments. Even as the RSF has engaged in talks with the army in the Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah, the group has launched attacks on the capitals of three of Darfur's five states, leading to mass displacement and large civilian casualties. Last month, it took full control over Nyala and Zalingei (the capitals of South Darfur and Central Darfur), while last week it seized the main army base in West Darfur's El Geneina. Over 1,000 people from the Masalit ethnic group were reportedly killed by RSF and allied militia fighters during the West Darfur takeover, which may amount to the worst civilian atrocity since Sudan's current war erupted on April 15. RSF leaders are now threatening to seize El Fasher in North Darfur, which has been a safe haven in recent months, and has attracted hundreds of thousands of displaced people.
Can Sudan talks make progress this time?
Sudan's army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have resumed negotiations in Jeddah, four months after the US- and Saudi-mediated talks were suspended because truces were repeatedly violated. Saudi Arabia said the discussions will be based on previous agreements to facilitate humanitarian access and respect ceasefires, though the conflict parties appear to have widely divergent negotiating stances. The army said the talks don't mean it will stop fighting, and the RSF—which controls most of the capital, Khartoum—has been battling on too. This week, it took full control over Nyala, the country's second biggest city and the largest in the Darfur region. Its defeat of the army there follows months of fighting.
El Niño's global food fallout
El Niño will drive global food aid needs even higher in the coming months, a new analysis warns. The prediction comes as food aid agencies are already making ration cuts amid a budget squeeze. In July, meteorologists declared the onset of El Niño, a periodic climate phenomenon that usually brings drought to large stretches of the globe and wetter weather elsewhere. The analysis by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network says that humanitarian groups must prepare for "high food assistance needs." Another climate phenomenon, the Indian Ocean Dipole, could amplify El Niño's effects—with both compounded by the climate crisis. This September was the hottest ever recorded. "The temperature anomalies are enormous—far bigger than anything we have ever seen in the past," Petteri Taalas, head of the UN's meteorological agency, WMO, said in a press release. ACAPS, the Geneva-based analysis outfit, says Ethiopia, Guatemala, Honduras, Mozambique, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Somalia, and Sudan may be the countries at the highest risk.
Russia in Africa: imperialist or pretender?
In Episode 194 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg reviews Russia in Africa: Resurgent Great Power or Bellicose Pretender? by Samuel Ramani. Oxford scholar Ramani traces the history from Imperial Russia's Cossack adventures in Djibouti to the contemporary Wagner Group operations in Sudan, the Sahel nations, and across the African continent. Is Russia truly a Great Power that can challenge the traditional colonial and neo-colonial powers on the continent, or is it a "pretender" which is at this moment assuming a particularly bellicose posture to compensate for its lack of structural imperial power? And does it make a difference? Listen on SoundCloud or via Patreon.
Ukrainian special ops against RSF in Sudan: report
Ukrainian special forces were apparently behind a series of drone strikes and coordinated ground operation directed against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) near Sudan's capital Khartoum last week, a CNN investigation has found. An unnamed Ukrainian military source told CNN the operation was the work of a "non-Sudanese military." Pressed on whether Kyiv was behind the attacks, the source stated: "Ukrainian special services were likely responsible." The RSF, which took up arms against the ruling junta in an evident effort to derail Sudan's planned democratic transition in April, is believed to be backed by Russia's mercenary Wagner Group.
Ethiopia: Amhara militia in new clashes with army
Ethiopia's government on Aug. 4 declared a state of emergency in Amhara state over ongoing clashes between the federal army and local Amhara Fano militiamen. The Ethiopian army and the Fano militia were allies in the two-year war in the northern Tigray region. Their relationship later deteriorated, in part over recent efforts by federal authorities to disband regional paramilitary groups. (Jurist, Al Jazeera)
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