With the sounds of war starting to fall silent in the Gaza Strip after 470 days of brutal Israeli military assault and siege, a tiny crack of hope has opened for the Palestinian residents of the enclave that they will be able to gather the shattered pieces of their lives and begin the daunting task of rebuilding. But whether the deal reached by Israel and Hamas on Jan. 15 will lead to a decisive end to the war remains entirely unclear.

From a humanitarian perspective, almost anything would be an improvement compared to the kinetic horror, mass displacement, and orchestrated deprivation and starvation of the past 15 months.

Any sense of relief, however, is tempered by the sheer scale of death and destruction, the profound uncertainties of the ceasefire agreement, and the fact that the underlying issues that have fuelled human suffering in Gaza–and throughout the Palestinian territories–since long before this war began, remain unaddressed: Israel's ongoing, illegal occupation; its administrative control of virtually every facet of life; and its deliberate thwarting of Palestinian autonomy and self-determination.

Uncertainties of the deal
The looming challenge of scaling up the humanitarian response amid widespread destruction, terms of access dictated by Israel, and the desperation of the population in Gaza—much of which has been on the verge of starvation for months–is just one of the questions left unanswered, or only partially answered, by the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas.

The three-phase deal is essentially the same one that has been on the table since last May, and which was repeatedly scuppered by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right allies.

The first 42-day phase, which began on Jan. 19, involves an initial exchange of hostages held by Hamas for Palestinian prisoners and detainees held by Israel. The Israeli military will also withdraw from population centers in Gaza, the amount of aid allowed to enter the enclave is supposed to be ramped up to 600 truckloads per day, and displaced Palestinians will be allowed to return to their homes—or what is left of them.

The much more contentious issues of how Gaza will be governed and the conditions for Israel's total withdrawal have been left for negotiations over the second phase of the deal, which aren’t set to begin until 16 days into the first phase.

Even if the first phase goes smoothly, there’s good reason to be concerned that the agreement may fall apart over the details of the second phase.

Netanyahu has vowed not to fully withdraw from Gaza until Hamas' military capabilities are totally dismantled and the group is no longer in control of the enclave. Far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich threatened to quit Netanyahu's governing coalition, potentially collapsing it, unless Israel continues the war after the first phase of the deal, controls the distribution of humanitarian aid, and gradually takes over the entirety of Gaza—conditions Netanyahu reportedly accepted.

Netanayahu has also said he received guarantees from the US that it will support Israel restarting the war if the deal falls apart, and other Israeli ministers have made cryptic statements about much remaining "hidden from view."

If the second round of negotiations begin in good faith—doubtful, given the statements of senior Israeli politicians—it's difficult to see how negotiators will be able to find common ground on the central question of who will govern Gaza after the war or even come up with a practicable plan.

The US, European countries, and Gulf Arab states have been pushing for a reformed Palestinian Authority, which governs the West Bank, to also administer Gaza. Israel has rejected that idea without outlining an alternative. Moreover, the Palestinian Authority lacks legitimacy among many Palestinians, who see it as a sub-contractor of the Israeli occupation.

Tellingly, the main arbiters of the conversation are Israel, which stands accused of committing genocide and numerous war crimes in Gaza over the past 15 months, and the US, which has bankrolled, armed, and provided diplomatic cover for the Israeli campaign. Consideration of Palestinians' right to self-determination, or even to have some say in how they are governed, is completely absent. 

A bleak picture
Realistically, what we could be looking at is a temporary ceasefire that lasts for part or all of the first 42-day phase, followed by Israel resuming its military campaign in some form or the negotiations falling apart over the question of post-war governance, leaving it unresolved.

In that case, Gaza would find itself frozen in limbo–neither at war nor at peace, with Israel reserving the right to carry out strikes on remnants of Hamas whenever they regroup. In the power vacuum, the territory would further fracture into cantons controlled by local powerbrokers, with pockets of anarchy in between—a process that is already underway.

UN agencies and NGOs would be left to try to keep the population on life support, subject to the amount of aid Israel decides to allow in, without ever really being able to stabilize the population or start the massive reconstruction effort that will be required to turn Gaza into a place that can support life once again.

Even if, defying the odds, Israel and Hamas are able to reach an agreement on post-war governance and phase two and three of the deal go ahead, culminating in the release of all of the remaining Israeli hostages—including the bodies of the deceased—and the beginning of a reconstruction plan for Gaza, the fundamental issues driving the conflict will remain.

Israel has made it clear time and again—including in a Knesset vote last July—that it is opposed to the formation of a Palestinian state, and much of Netanyahu's political career has been dedicated to thwarting the creation of one.

Additionally, hints have already started to emerge about how the incoming Trump administration may have gotten Netanyahu to move forward with a ceasefire agreement that he had resisted signing for eight months under the Biden administration, including by lifting US sanctions on violent Israeli settlers in the West Bank, retaliating against the ICC for issuing war crimes arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former defence minister Yoav Gallant, and leading efforts at the UN to replace UNRWA.

Under a Trump administration that promises to be even more staunchly pro-Israel than the Biden administration, it’s difficult to imagine Palestinians seeing anything resembling their aspirations for a state being met, or justice and accountability for the crimes that have been committed during the past 15 months—to say nothing of decades of occupation.

So what are we to expect as this ceasefire takes hold?

The deal itself may only lead to a brief respite before the war resumes, or to the beginning of a new phase that may be less overtly violent but just as detrimental to life in Gaza in a slower and equally pernicious way. Sadly, a pathway to sustainable peace that would allow people in Gaza to recover, rebuild, and heal looks as far off as it has possibly ever been.

If there are points of light, they come from the mass protest movements calling for Palestinian freedom galvanised by this war, the activist-led efforts to isolate Israel diplomatically and financially, the fact that much of the world outside of the US and Europe clearly sees what is taking place, and the prospect of international legal mechanisms resisting the efforts to undermine them and trying to deliver at least a degree of justice and accountability.

— Eric Reidy for The New Humanitarian, Jan. 20 (condensed)