The Trump administration appears close to launching military strikes on Iran. The US is amassing a large strike force in the Middle East, including two aircraft carriers, over a dozen warships, and advanced fighter jets, suggesting preparations for a prolonged war. After first threatening military action in January following a protest crackdown in Iran that killed thousands, US officials now say a decision could come within days or weeks, depending on the outcome of now-stalled negotiations over Iran's uranium enrichment and missile development programs. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said any deal must dismantle both programs. Iran's leaders may view forfeiting these means of deterrence against foreign intervention as more dangerous than a war.

In a Feb. 19 letter to UN Secretary-General António Guterres, Iran's government said it would not start a war, but would respond to any attacks by targeting US military bases in the region. Current and former US officials have warned that strikes against Iran could ignite regional proxy wars and disrupt global oil markets.

From The New Humanitarian, Feb. 20. Internal links added.