In the most significant escalation in Syria since a 2020 ceasefire instated under emergency conditions during the COVID pandemic, rebel forces in northwestern Idlib province on Nov. 28 launched a surprise offensive on the country's most populous city, Aleppo. The rebel advance is said to have penetrated the perimeter of the city, which had been held for years by rebel forces before it was retaken by the regime with the help of Russian air power in 2016. Russia has responded to the new offensive with fresh air-strikes on Idlib, which has been coming under intermittent Russian bombardment for years. At least 225 fatalities are reported in the new fighting, including some 25 civilians killed in Russian air-strikes. 

There have been unconfirmed reports that Syrian strongman Bashar Assad has made an emergency visit to Moscow in response to the rebel advance.

The offensive is said to be a joint operation by the jihadist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and rival Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), which each have their own spheres of control in Idlib, the last largely opposition-controlled province in the country. Photos showed the advancing forces flying the Free Syria flag favored by the secular-nationalist opposition.

Nonetheless, Iran's Foreign Ministry called the rebel advance "an American-Zionist design." It is true that just two days before the offensive was launched, Nov. 27, Israel carried out air-strikes on border crossings with Lebanon in the western Syrian provinces of Tartus and Homs, killing six people, including two military personnel and a Syrian Arab Red Crescent volunteer. Twelve others were reportedly injured, among them children, women and humanitarian workers.

The Israeli strikes came just as a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect, after months of Israeli bombardment of southern Lebanon. As the ceasefire came into effect, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu issued a threat to Assad, saying "don't play with fire," and vowing to destroy his regime if it continued to support Hezbollah.

Israel has been carrying out intermittent air-strikes on Syria for years, but generally targeting Iran-backed militia forces rather than regime troops or installations. (Syrian Observer, Syrian Observer, Syrian Observer, Syrian Observer, EA Worldview, The Moscow Times, RBC Ukraine, RTE)