IRIN

DR Congo: M23 rebels stage bloody comeback

Thousands have been displaced after new fighting broke out between M23 rebels and the army in the Democratic Republic of the Congo's North Kivu province. A UN helicopter was shot down March 29 (for which both sides blamed each other), and the fighting has sparked regional tensions as Kinshasa accused Rwanda of supporting the rebels (a charge Kigali denies). M23 was responsible for the last major rebellion in eastern DRC, seizing large chunks of territory in 2012 and 2013 before a joint UN-government offensive forced its fighters into Uganda and Rwanda. Efforts to demobilize the group stalled and a cluster of combatants resettled in DRC in late 2016. Fresh skirmishes were reported in November, though the strength of the group remains unclear, as are its objectives. M23 is but one of over 100 armed groups active in eastern DRC.

South Sudan headed 'back to war'

South Sudan's Vice President Riek Machar warned March 28  that the country is heading "back to war" following attacks on his Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army-in Opposition (SPLM/A-IO) by government forces under President Salva Kiir. The warring parties signed a 2018 peace agreement that led to a unity government two years later. But key parts of the deal have not been implemented, and violence has flared in the countryside. Machar's party suspended its participation in peace deal monitoring mechanisms after claiming that his house had been surrounded by government forces on March 27. As tensions build, humanitarian needs are deepening: more than 70% of South Sudan's population are expected to face extreme hunger this year, while funding constraints and attacks on aid convoys will likely continue to complicate relief efforts.

Ethiopia: security threats thwart Tigray relief

Security threats are preventing aid groups from bringing relief supplies into Ethiopia's northern Tigray region, even as the government has declared a unilateral truce following 17 months of conflict with forces aligned to the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). In a statement on March 24, federal authorities promised to facilitate aid access into Tigray, having imposed a months-long blockade that has left a population of six million people bereft of basic health supplies and facing extreme food shortages.

'Disappointing' aid for hunger-stricken Yemen

As the country heads into an eighth year of war, Yemen is considered one of the world's largest and most complex humanitarian crises: debilitated basic services, a collapsed economy, an estimated 20.7 million people (more than two thirds of the population) in need—all amid escalating conflict involving numerous different actors. On March 16, the UN appealed to donor states for $4.3 billion in aid for Yemen. Donors coughed up less than a third of that request, with pledges—mainly from Western states—amounting to $1.3 billion. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia—top donors to Yemen in previous years—pledged nothing, while Kuwait pledged a surprisingly low $10 million. The UN's humanitarian chief, Martin Griffiths, called the result "a disappointment." The outcome is in stark contrast to Ukraine's pledging conference just two weeks prior, considered the "fastest and most generous" response ever to a flash appeal. As the world's attention is fixated on Ukraine, aid workers worry that it could draw resources away from other crises, such as Yemen.

Ukraine war's fallout on global wheat supplies

One knock-on effect of the war in Ukraine has been a jump in the global price of wheat—to its highest level since 2008. Russia and Ukraine account for a third of the world wheat supply, and Ukraine's most productive regions lie in the path of the conflict. If Ukrainian wheat is taken off the market, or ports are badly damaged, prices could possibly double. That would especially hurt the Middle East and North Africa—but also places as far afield as Bangladesh and Nigeria, which are major importers of Russian and Ukrainian wheat. The real test for the world supply will be the next harvest in four months' time. If Western sanctions target Russian production—or Moscow angrily responds to pressure by squeezing wheat supplies—then shortages could really bite, potentially worsening global huger.

'Emergency' ends in Ethiopia — but not the war

Ethiopia's parliament voted on Feb. 15 for an early end to a six-month state of emergency, with the government citing its improved military position. The measure—introduced as Tigrayan rebel forces threatened Addis Ababa in November—gave the government power to detain citizens without charge, and thousands of Tigrayan civilians were rounded up. Tigrayan forces have since withdrawn to their stronghold in the country's north. Before doing so, they committed atrocities, including gang rapes, in the contested Amhara region, according to a report by Amnesty International. Government forces and their Eritrean allies are also accused of widespread abuses. Both sides are under international pressure to find a political solution to the war—with the release of detainees held under the state of emergency seen as an important step to dialogue. But fighting continues in Tigray and Afar, and the humanitarian situation remains dire. Medical supplies this month reached Tigray for the first time since July 2021—but there is no fuel for distribution of these critical supplies. The last time the government allowed in fuel for humanitarian operations was in August.

Yemen: Biden warned against Houthi 'terrorist' tag

US President Joe Biden is said to be considering re-designating Yemen's Houthi rebels (officially called Ansar Allah) as a terrorist organization, a possibility he mentioned last month after the group claimed responsibility for a deadly missile attack inside the United Arab Emirates. The UAE and Saudi Arabia lead a military coalition that has been fighting the Houthis in Yemen for seven years. Saudi Arabia said its air defense system intercepted a Houthi drone near its southern border on Feb. 10. Aid groups—part of a successful lobbying campaign that saw Biden remove the label shortly after he took office last January—warn that a redesignation would have "catastrophic consequences for Yemeni civilians." Not only would it hit the economy hard, making it even more difficult to import food, fuel, and medicine, but it would also decrease the flow of much-needed aid at a time when "organizations like ours are already struggling to keep pace with immense and growing needs." Violence is also growing, and not just around the battlefields of the contested province and city of Marib. Between early October and early February, 1,535 civilians were reportedly killed or injured, more than double the figure for the previous four months.

Libya's two prime ministers

On Feb. 10, Libya's eastern-based parliament chose a new prime minister for the country, former interior minister Fathi Bashagha. The only problem… Libya already has an interim prime minister: Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, who was chosen by a UN-led process to head the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord. Dbeibah was supposed to guide the fractured country through presidential elections in late December, but they were postponed after confusion and contestation over the rules governing the process. Among the issues: Dbeibah, who had promised not to run for president but put his hat in the ring anyway, would apparently have to step away from his duties three months before the polls—which he did not do. The Tobruk-based parliament says the December deadline means Dbeibah's time is up, but he says he won't hand over power until elections take place. He also reportedly survived an assassination attempt shortly before the parliament's move to replace him, but details on what really happened remain thin. None of this appears to bode well for Libyans' long quest for a united country.

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