As the Assad regime, backed by Russian air-strikes, opens its offensive on the Free Syrian Army's Southern Front [14] in Daraa governorate—and towns start to fall to pro-regime forces, with thousands fleeing their homes in fear of reprisals—the Trump White House has issued a statement to the rebels, warning, "[Y]ou should not base your decisions on the assumption or expectation of a military intervention by us." This despite Washington's earlier warning to Assad and Putin that any violation of the so-called "de-escalation zones [15]" would have "serious repercussions," including "firm and appropriate measures." (Reuters [16], Reuters [17], DW [18]) Not surprisingly, this betrayal comes just as Trump reportedly told King Abdullah II of Jordan at the White House that he is seeking a deal with Putin on terms for a withdrawal of remaining US forces from Syria. Reports indicate the deal will be on the agenda when Trump meets with Putin in Helsinki next month. (CNN [19])
Earlier this month, apparent Russian air-strikes (denied by Moscow, although it is possible they were carried out by Assad's warplanes, and it makes little difference) killed dozens in a so-called "de-escalation"" zone in Idlib [20], the only other Syrian province that remains in rebel hands. There was, of course, no US response. (MEE [21], CBS [22])
The US has long been constraining the rebel forces [23] from fighting Assad as a condition of receiving aid, insisting they fight only ISIS and other jihadists. Now that ISIS is essentially defeated, we appear to be witnessing Trump's betrayal of the Syrian opposition [24] in an evident carve-up deal [25] with Putin.
Israel is meanwhile escalating its air-strikes on Syrian territory [26], last week targetting positions of a pro-regime Shiite militia near al-Bukamal (Deir ez-Zor governorate), leaving several fighters dead. (Haaretz [27]) Putin seems to have brokered an unspoken deal between his buddies Assad and Netanyahu, allowing Israel to bomb Syrian territory as long as it only targets, Iranian forces [28], Hezbollah and allied foreign militias [29], and not actual regime positions. A narrow distinction perhaps, given Assad's overwhelming reliance on foreign paramilitary forces—especially in the "sectarian cleansing [30]" of conquered territories.
But that's why they call it a Great Game.
