President Biden approved in March a highly classified nuclear posture document for the first time reorienting US deterrent strategy to focus on China's rapid expansion [12] in its nuclear arsenal. The shift comes as the Pentagon believes China's stockpiles will rival the size and diversity of those of the United States and Russia over the next decade. The new "Nuclear Employment Guidance" is so highly classified that there are no electronic copies, and only a small number of hard copies distributed to top national security officials and Pentagon brass. But a copy was just obtained by the New York Times [13].
The Employment Guidance also reportedly seeks to prepare the United States for possible coordinated nuclear challenges from China, Russia and North Korea.
Beijing reacted angrily to the report. "The US is peddling the China nuclear threat narrative, finding excuses to seek strategic advantage," a Chinese Foreign Ministry representative told Reuters [15].
According to research [16] by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, China had an estimated 500 nuclear warheads in January, up from 410 in January 2023. The US and Russia have more than 5,000 warheads each. But China's arsenal is thought to be expanding at a much faster pace than that of any other country. Western officials believe China could increase the size of its nuclear arsenal from 500 to 1,000 warheads by 2030. (The Guardian [17])
The total number of nuclear weapons on Earth has been significantly reduced since the 1980s, but there is still a sufficient number to bring about nuclear winter [18] and destroy civilization, or perhaps the human race itself.
See our last post on the threat of human extinction. [19]
