There is "no credible pathway to 1.5C in place" today, the UN Environment Program (UNEP [6]) states in its new Emissions Gap Report 2022 [7], despite legally binding promises made at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference to prevent average temperatures rising by more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. "This report tells us in cold scientific terms what nature has been telling us all year, through deadly floods, storms and raging fires: we have to stop filling our atmosphere with greenhouse gases, and stop doing it fast," said Inger Andersen, executive director of UNEP. "We had our chance to make incremental changes, but that time is over. Only a root-and-branch transformation of our economies and societies can save us from accelerating climate disaster."
Despite Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC [9]) promises made by governments [10] in favor of reducing their carbon footprint, pledges made since the last climate summit in Glasgow [11] in 2021 will lead to cuts of less than one percent of projected 2030 greenhouse gas emissions, according to UNEP. This is the equivalent of just 0.5 gigatonnes of CO2, UNEP calculated, adding that only a 45% emissions reduction will limit global warming to 1.5C.
The latest data indicates that the world is on track for a temperature rise of between 2.4C and 2.6C by the end of this century.
"In the best-case scenario, full implementation of unconditional NDCs and additional net-zero emissions commitments point to only a 1.8C increase, so there is hope. However, this scenario is not currently credible based on the discrepancy between current emissions, short-term NDC targets and long-term net-zero targets," UNEP said. (UN News [12])
UN agencies have repeatedly [13] issued dire warnings [14] of imminent climate destabilization over the past years.
See our last report on the Paris accords [15].
