Regional security has been seen as the biggest challenge for the planned trans-Afghan gas pipeline—officially the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI [12]) project, which would pass the war-torn Afghan provinces of Herat and Kandahar as well as Pakistan [13]'s restive Baluchistan [14] province. But recent reports of a rival pipeline project being negotiated between China [15], Turkmenistan [16] and Afghanistan [17] may pose a more fundamental threat to the TAPI. On June 6-8, on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperations Organization [18] summit in Beijing, Afghan President Hamid Karzai met with Chinese President Hu Jintao and China National Petroleum Corporation's (CNPC [19]) head Jiang Jiemin to discuss the proposal. CNPC offered to conduct a technical and economic feasibility study for the proposed project on Afghan and Tajik territories. That the route would avoid the conflicted Pashtun-dominated areas of southern Afghanistan, making the project more attractive for investors. India [20]'s Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses says the Chinese pipeline could undermine the TAPI "akin to the manner in which TAPI played spoiler to the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline project." (IDSA [21], July 31)
The IPI [22] proposal still has some life in it, with Islamabad's Petroleum Ministry ostensibly still committed to it despite having signed on to the TAPI. The Ministry has called a meeting this week to discuss IPI-related offers made by Iran [23], China and Russia despite ongoing US pressure to drop the project. (The Nation [24], Pakistan, Aug. 3)
Turkmenistan, holder of the world's fourth-largest natural gas reserves, announced last week it will hold "roadshows" in September and October for prospective TAPI investors in New York, London and Singapore. (Reuters [25], July 28)
Isolated Turkmenistan is in the enviable yet precarious position of being wooed by rival powers for competing pipeline routes. Despite its commitment to the TAPI, Turkmenistan recently inaugurated a new gas pipeline to Iran [26].
See our last posts the regional pipeline wars [27] and the struggle for control of oil.
