Amnesty International (AI) claimed Feb. 23 that the Egyptian military failed to take adequate precautionary measures to avoid civilian casualties in an attack on the Libyan city of Derna last week. The air-strikes occurred in the early morning hours of Feb. 16, and AI argues that indiscriminate attacks on civilian populations, such as this attack by the Egyptian military, amount to war crimes. The AI article cites eyewitness testimonies from local residents who claim there are no military targets near the largely residential area of Sheiha al-Gharbiya, where two missiles were fired resulting in the deaths of seven civilians. Additionally, Sheiha al-Gharbiya is located near the city's university. The international community is largely restricted to eyewitness accounts of missile attacks within urban areas of Libya due to the hostile conditions for journalists in the country. The Egyptian airstrikes were executed in retaliation for the slaughter of 21 Egyptian Christians [by presumed ISIS militants]. AI urges the Egyptian military and all warring parties in Libya to take all feasible precautions to spare civilians and to ensure that their forces do not carry out direct attacks on civilians or attacks which are indiscriminate or disproportionate.

An Egyptian court on Jan. 15 put ex-president Mohammed Morsi on trial over accusations of spying and leaking information to Qatar. Prosecutors, as part of the country's continued crack down on Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood, allege that Morsi endangered national security by leaking to Qatar state secrets and documents that exposed the location of Egyptian weapons and revealed a portion of the country's foreign and domestic policies. Egypt's relationship with Qatar has been strained since Qatar continued to support Morsi and Islamists after the his ouster in July 2013. Since taking over after Morsi, current President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi has instituted an intense national security campaign against Islamists.

Claims of an active Libyan branch of the ISIS franchise are given grim credence by photos circulating on social media purporting to show abducted Coptic Christians in the charactersitic pose of ISIS captives—kneeling in orange jump-suits as black-clad masked me stand over them menacingly. Text says they will be punished (presumably executed) as "revenge for the Muslims persecuted by the Coptic Crusaders of Egypt." A total of 21 Copts, all migrant laborers from Egypt, were abducted in the Libyan city of Sirte on in two incidents Dec. 31 and Jan. 3. Egypt's Foreign Ministry is investigating the authenticity of the photos, and has organized an emergency evacuation of Egyptian nationals from Libya. The anti-terrorist Quilliam Foundation is meanwhile claiming that ISIS has seized control of a radio station in Sirte. (Al Arabiya, Newsweek, Feb. 13; Egyptian Streets, Feb. 12)

As we noted in September (when the price had just dipped below $100 a barrel), after an initial price shock when ISIS seized northern Iraq, the world oil price has since slumped. It now stands at around $60 a barrel. Recall that way back in late 2001, when the US was invading Afghanistan, it stood at a lowly $11. At that time, we predicted an imminent price shock to jump-start the planned industry expansion—both in the Caspian Basin and here at home, overcoming environmental concerns. Boy, were we right. The price of a barrel first broke the $100 mark in 2008, and has frequently crossed it in the years since then, although it never quite hit the much-feared $200-a-barrel. But now the petro-oligarchs are talking like $100 may be the new $200. Saudi Arabia's oil minister Ali al-Naimi last month answered "we may not" when asked if markets would ever lift prices to $100 again. (CNN, Dec. 23) How much of this are we to believe, and what is really behind the slump?

The rapidly escalating civil war in Libya on Dec. 28 saw the first air-strikes on Misrata, the country's third city, since the fall of the Qaddafi regime in 2011. Warplanes under the command of Gen. Khalifa Haftar fired missiles at the city's airport—just 30 minutes before a Turkish Airlines flight was due to leave for Istanbul. The fighter jets went on to attack Libya's largest steel plant and an air force academy near the airport, which are under the control of Islamist forces. (Irish Independent, Dec. 29) The Misrata attacks came days after Egypt (which is said to be backing Gen. Haftar) issued a warning about international terrorist groups using Libyan territory as a staging ground, especially in the remote south. Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said that Nigeria's Boko Haram is among the groups that have established camps in southern Libya. (MENA, Dec. 23)

Gen. David Rodriguez, head of US Africa Command, said Dec. 3 that ISIS has set up training camps in eastern Libya, and that the Pentagon is closely monitoring the situation. He described the ISIS activity as "very small and nascent," with "around a couple hundred" militants were present at the camps. When asked if the Libyan camps are a potential target for US forces, Rodriguez said: "No, not right now." (AFP, Dec. 4) In October, Libya's militant group Ansar al-Sharia declared an "Islamic emirate" in the eastern city of Derna and pledged allegiance to ISIS. A video posted showed a parade in Derna with militants holding ISIS flags and shouting pro-ISIS slogans. (Al Arabiya, Oct. 6) This now makes three international entities that have joined the ISIS franchise.

The US House of Representatives Intelligence Committee on Nov. 21 released a report (PDF) stating that the Obama administration properly responded to the 2012 attack on the US consulate in Benghazi, Libya. The committee, which is led by Republicans, concluded that there was no failure of intelligence and no delay in sending a rescue team. In a statement by committee chairman Mike Rogers, he announced:

Libya's Supreme Court on Nov. 6 declared the UN-backed elected parliament unconstitutional. The ongoing crisis in Libya has created two rival parliaments, one based in the nation's capital Tripoli, and the other, which was declared illegitimate by the high court, based in the northeastern city of Tobruk. The court, in a televised ruling, found that the June 25 election of the House of Representatives and the subsequent appointment of Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thinni illegal under the country's provisional constitution. The internationally recognized Tobruk-based government fled to the northeast of the country after rival militias forced the government out of Libya's three major cities: Tripoli, Benghazi and Misrata. Tripoli, home of Libya's Supreme Court, has been under the control of the militia group Operation Dawn since August. They have reinstated the previous parliament, the General National Congress (GNC), who brought the challenge before the high court.